Senior Citizens Still Doing Well Against H1N1 but
Need Vaccination Says CDC
Cases leveling off but new
surge is possible – see charts by age of cases, hospitalizations, deaths
March 15,
2010 - The latest report from the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows a relatively small increase
in H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The numbers released on
Friday also confirm senior citizens are fairing relatively well in
avoiding and battling this flu. Just ten percent of cases have been
seniors but CDC still says people 65 years
and older should get vaccinated for 2009 H1N1.
While less likely to get sick with 2009 H1N1 than
younger people, people 65 and older are at high risk of serious
complications if they do become ill, according to the CDC.
“Vaccination of people with certain health
conditions also is important because they are at higher risk of serious
flu-related complications. Health conditions that increase the risk of
being hospitalized from 2009 H1N1 include lung disease like asthma or
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, heart, or
neurologic disease, and pregnancy.
“The latest estimates through February 13, 2010
show a relatively small increase in the total number of 2009 H1N1 cases,
hospitalizations and deaths since the previous estimates posted on
February 12, 2010. The additional four weeks of flu activity data added
to derive these updated estimates correlate with a four week period of
ongoing but generally low flu activity in the United States.
The data by age provided in the updated estimates
continues to confirm that people younger than 65 years of age are more
severely affected by this disease relative to people 65 and older
compared with seasonal flu, reports the CDC.
● With 2009 H1N1, approximately 90% of estimated
hospitalizations and 87% of estimated deaths from April through February
13, 2009 occurred in people younger than 65 years old.
2009 H1N1
Mid-Level Range*
Percent
Estimated Range*
Cases
0-17 years
19 million
32.2%
14 - 28 million
18-64 years
34 million
57.6%
24 - 50 million
65 years and older
6 million
10.2%
4 - 8 million
Cases Total
59 million
42 - 86 million
Hospitalizations
0-17 years
85,000
32.1%
60,000 - 125,000
18-64 years
154,000
58.1%
109,000 - 226,000
65 years and older
26,000
9.8%
19,000 - 38,000
Hospitalizations Total
265,000
188,000 - 389,000
Deaths
0-17 years
1,250
10.4%
890 - 1,840
18-64 years
9,200
76.7%
6,530 - 13,500
65 years and older
1,550
12.9%
1,100 - 2,280
Deaths Total
12,000
8,520 - 17,620
* Deaths have been rounded to the nearest ten. Hospitalizations
have been rounded to the nearest thousand and cases have been
rounded to the nearest million. Released 3/12/2010 adding 4
weeks of data (1/17/10 – 2/13/10) to estimates released
2/12/2010.Source: CDC
CDC is continuing to recommend vaccination against
2009 H1N1 at this time for all people 6 months and older, including
those people 65 years of age and older because severe illness and deaths
have occurred in this age group.
“The United States experienced its first wave of
2009 H1N1 pandemic activity in the spring of 2009, followed by a second
wave of 2009 H1N1 activity in the fall. Activity peaked during the
second week in October and then declined quickly to below baseline
levels in January,” the according to the CDC.
“The early rise in flu activity in October is in
contrast to non-pandemic influenza seasons. Influenza activity usually
peaks in January, February or March. Because 2009 H1N1 activity peaked
in late October, the greatest increase in the number of estimated 2009
H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths occurred during the period of
April through November 14, 2009.”
Another Rush of H1N1 Cases Could Occur
The CDC update reports, “While activity so far this
season peaked in October and then declined quickly to below baseline
levels in January, and even further into February, there are still
uncertainties surrounding the rest of this flu season, including the
possibility of increases in circulation of seasonal influenza viruses
and increases in circulation of 2009 H1N1 viruses.
“Flu activity – caused by either 2009 H1N1 or
seasonal flu viruses – may rise and fall, but is expected to continue
for several more weeks. During some seasons, flu activity can last into
May. Also, in past pandemics, flu activity has occurred in waves and
it’s possible that the United States could experience another wave of
flu activity in the winter or spring of 2010, in addition to ongoing
localized outbreaks. In addition, sporadic cases of influenza may also
be detected in the summer.
As of February 13, 2010, approximately 86 million
people had received 97 million doses of 2009 H1N1 vaccine. When the
numbers of people vaccinated against 2009 H1N1 is combined with the
number of people previously infected with 2009 H1N1, a significant
number of people in the United States likely have immunity to the 2009
H1N1 virus.
However, with a population of more than 300 million
in this country, a substantial number of people likely remain
susceptible to 2009 H1N1, which continues to circulate at this time.
Ongoing vaccination of people with certain health conditions is
particularly important because most cases of serious 2009 H1N1 illness
(e.g., hospitalizations) have occurred in people with underlying medical
conditions.
Health conditions that increase the risk of being
hospitalized from 2009 H1N1 include lung disease like asthma or chronic
pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, heart, or neurologic disease and
pregnancy. In addition, minority populations have been harder-hit by the
2009 H1N1 pandemic than non-minority groups (See
“Information on 2009 H1N1 impact by Race and Ethnicity.)”
What You Should Know and Do this Flu Season If You Are 65
Years and Older –
Click to CDC
This methodology and the resulting estimates
continue to underscore the substantial
under-reporting that occurs
when laboratory-confirmed outcomes are the sole method used to capture
hospitalizations and deaths.
CDC has maintained since the beginning of this
outbreak that laboratory-confirmed data on hospitalizations and deaths
reported to CDC is an underestimation of the true number that have
occurred because of incomplete testing, inaccurate test results, or
diagnosis that attribute hospitalizations and deaths to other causes,
for example, secondary complications to influenza. (Information about
surveillance and reporting for 2009 H1N1 is available at
Questions and Answers: Monitoring
Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1.)
The estimates derived from this methodology provide
the public, public health officials and policy makers a sense of the
health impact of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. While these numbers are an
estimate, CDC feels that they present a fuller picture of the burden of
2009 H1N1 disease on the United States.
Graph A provides a summary illustration of the
various estimates for 2009 H1N1 cases, made over time.
Graph A shows the cumulative estimated 2009 H1N1
cases by age group (0-17 years old, 18-64 years old, and 65 years and
older) in the United States for each of the time periods that CDC
provided case estimates and illustrates that people in the 18-64 years
age group were most heavily impacted by 2009 H1N1 disease followed by
people in the 0-17 years age group. People 65 years of age and older
were relatively less affected by 2009 H1N1 illness.
Graph B below shows the total cumulative 2009
H1N1 cases (across all age groups) reported for each of the time periods
that CDC provided case estimates.
The curved black line in Graph B depicts the
increase in 2009 H1N1 cases per the midpoint value of the estimates for
each reporting period for which CDC provided 2009 H1N1 case estimates.
The curved line in Graph B shows that the greatest increase in 2009 H1N1
cases occurred between October 17, 2009 and November 14, 2009, which
correlates with the peak of the fall-winter wave of 2009 H1N1 activity
in the United States.
Graphs C below displays estimates of 2009 H1N1
related hospitalizations in the United States.
Graph C shows cumulative estimated 2009 H1N1
hospitalizations by age group (0-17 years old, 18-64 years old, and 65
years and older) in the United States for each of the time periods that
CDC provided estimates of hospitalizations, and illustrates, again, that
people 18-64 years of age were most impacted by serious illness
(including hospitalizations), followed by people in the 0-17 years old
age group. Again, people 65 and older were relatively less affected by
2009 H1N1 hospitalizations than people in other age groups.
Graphs E below displays estimates related to
2009 H1N1 deaths in the United States.
Graph E shows the cumulative estimated 2009 H1N1
deaths by age group (0-17 years old, 18-64 years old, and 65 years and
older) in the United States for each of the time periods that CDC
provided estimates of deaths and illustrates, again, that people in the
18-64 years age group were relatively more affected by 2009 H1N1 related
deaths than people in other age groups.
>> For more CDC information and updates –
click here
CDC Situation Update
Flu
Activity: FluView reports that for the week of February 28 – March
6, 2010, flu activity in the United States was relatively low, with most
flu continuing to be caused by 2009 H1N1. Flu activity, caused by either
2009 H1N1 or
seasonal flu viruses, may rise and fall, but is expected to continue
for weeks. It’s possible that the United States could experience another
wave of flu activity caused by either 2009 H1N1 or seasonal influenza.
See More On Key Flu Indicators at CDC »
Vaccination: CDC recommends influenza
vaccination as the first and most important step in protecting against
the flu. CDC is encouraging anyone who wants to protect themselves
against 2009 H1N1 to get vaccinated, including
people 65 years and older. While less likely to get sick with 2009
H1N1 than younger people, people 65 and older are at high risk of
serious complications if they do become ill. Vaccination of people with
certain health conditions also is important because they are at higher
risk of serious flu-related complications.
Health conditions that increase the risk of being hospitalized from
2009 H1N1 include lung disease like
asthma or
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD),
diabetes,
heart, or neurologic disease, and
pregnancy.
Background by
CDC
Estimating the
number of individual flu cases in the United States is very challenging
because many people with flu don’t seek medical care and only a small
number of those that do seek care are tested. More people who are
hospitalized or die of flu-related causes are tested and reported, but
under-reporting of hospitalizations and deaths occurs as well. For this
reason CDC monitors influenza activity levels and trends and virus
characteristics through a nationwide surveillance system and uses
statistical modeling to estimate the burden of flu illness (including
hospitalizations and deaths) in the United States.
When the 2009 H1N1
flu outbreak began in April 2009, CDC began tracking and reporting the
number of laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and
deaths as reported by states to CDC. These initial case counts (which
were discontinued on July 24, 2009), and subsequent ongoing
laboratory-confirmed reports of hospitalizations and deaths, are thought
to represent a significant
undercount of the actual
number of 2009 H1N1 flu cases in the United States.
A paper in
Emerging Infectious Diseases
authored by CDC staff entitled “Estimates of the Prevalence of Pandemic
(H1N1) 2009, United States, April–July 2009” reported on a
study to estimate the prevalence of 2009 H1N1 based on the number of
laboratory-confirmed cases reported to CDC. Correcting for
under-ascertainment, the study found that every case of 2009 H1N1
reported from April – July represented an estimated 79 total cases, and
every hospitalized case reported may have represented an average of 2.7
total hospitalized people. CDC then began working on a way to estimate,
in an ongoing way, the impact of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic on the U.S. in
terms of 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. CDC developed a
method to provide an estimated range of the total number of 2009 H1N1
cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States by age group
using data on flu associated hospitalizations collected through CDC’s
Emerging Infections Program.[
Keep up with the latest news for senior citizens, baby
boomers
March 15,
2010 - The latest report from the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows a relatively small increase
in H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The numbers released on
Friday also confirm senior citizens are fairing relatively well in
avoiding and battling this flu. Just ten percent of cases have been
seniors but CDC still says 
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