|
E-mail this page to a friend!
Get Prepared for Pandemic from Avian Flu Virus, Says
World Health Organization
Estimates of deaths range from two to fifty million;
seniors, children most at risk
Dec. 9, 2004 - The World Health Organization and
influenza experts worldwide are concerned that the recent appearance and
widespread distribution of an avian influenza virus, Influenza A (H5N1),
has the potential to ignite the next flu pandemic. All avian influenza
viruses are not the same, however, and the strains found in North
America have not been H5N1.
|
More
Information |
|
|
Avian Flu in
North America
There Are Different Types of Avian Flu
Virus
Information on Avian Flu in North America is
provided by the Centers for Disease Control. It should be noted,
however, that there are different
strains of this virus. It is H5N1, that is spreading in Asia and
creating the worldwide fear of a pandemic. There are no cases of
this virus in North America, although other strains have been
found. Read their report here -
Click
here for report
MORE LINKS
>
WHO site
>
CDC site
>
USDA site
>
Avian Flu Researcher Daniel Perez site
|
|
WHO believes the appearance of H5N1, which is now
widely entrenched in Asia, signals that the world has moved closer to
the next pandemic. While it is impossible to accurately forecast the
magnitude of the next pandemic, we do know that much of the world is
unprepared for a pandemic of any size, they say.
The largest, most devastating outbreak of an
infectious disease in modern history occurred in 1918 ("Spanish Flu"),
when a highly virulent influenza A (H1N1) virus spread throughout the
world and killed between 20 million and 40 million people. Additional
epidemics occurred in 1957 (H2N2) and 1968 (H3N2), both originating in
Asia and each killing approximately 1 million people. These have led to
widespread concern about the ongoing outbreak of avian H5N1 influenza in
Asia.
WHO, a United Nations organization, has urged all
countries to develop or update their influenza pandemic preparedness
plans for responding to the widespread socioeconomic disruptions that
would result from having large numbers of people unwell or dying.
Central to preparedness planning is an estimate of
how deadly the next pandemic is likely to be. Experts' answers to this
fundamental question have ranged from 2 million to over 50 million. All
these answers are scientifically grounded. There are several reasons for
the wide range of estimates.
> Some estimates are based on extrapolations from
past pandemics but significant details of these events are disputed,
including the true numbers of deaths that resulted. The most precise
predictions are based on the pandemic in 1968 but even in this case
estimates vary from one million to four million deaths. Similarly, the
number of deaths from the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 is posited by
different investigators to range from 20 million to well over 50
million.
> Extrapolations are problematic because the world
in 2004 is a different place from 1918. The impact of greatly improved
nutrition and health care needs to be weighed against the contribution
the increase in international travel would have in terms of global
spread.
> The specific characteristics of a future pandemic
virus cannot be predicted. It may affect between 20-50% of the total
population. It is also unknown how pathogenic a novel virus would be,
and which age groups will be affected.
> The level of preparedness will also influence the
final death toll. Even moderate pandemics can inflict a considerable
burden on the unprepared and disadvantaged. Planning to maintain health
care systems will be especially crucial. Good health care will play a
central role in reducing the impact, yet the pandemic itself may disrupt
the supply of essential medicines and health care workers may fall ill.
Because of these factors, confidently narrowing the
range of estimates cannot be done until the pandemic emerges. Therefore,
response plans need to be both strong and flexible.
Even in the best case scenarios of the next
pandemic, 2 to 7 million people would die and tens of millions would
require medical attention. If the next pandemic virus is a very virulent
strain, deaths could be dramatically higher.
The global spread of a pandemic cannot be stopped
but preparedness will reduce its impact. WHO says they will continue to
urge preparedness and assist member states in these activities.
In the next few weeks, WHO will be publishing a
national assessment tool to evaluate and focus national preparedness
efforts. WHO will also be providing guidance on stockpiling antivirals
and vaccines. Next week, WHO will be convening an expert meeting on
preparedness planning. WHO is also working to advance development of
pandemic virus vaccines, and to expedite research efforts to understand
the mechanisms of emergence and spread of influenza pandemics.
It is of central importance that countries take the
necessary steps to develop their own preparedness plans. Some have
already developed structures and processes to counter this threat but
some plans are far from complete and many Member States have yet to
begin.
Click to More Senior News on the
Front Page
Copyright: SeniorJournal.com |
