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Seniors Worried Abut
Flu Vaccine Shortage Now Must Worry About Flu Pandemic
Pandemic could
cause deaths of tens of millions, says World Health Organization,
that has called for global summit
 Nov. 1, 2004 If
the shortage of flu vaccine was not enough to keep seniors worried, we
now have the flu pandemic, which the U.N.s World Health Organization
says is closer than ever. They have called for a world summit on
November 11. The flu killed about 36,000 in the U.S. last year and a
million worldwide. Tens of millions can die in a pandemic, which occurs
ever 20 to 30 years. Here is what you need to know about a pandemic.
Pandemic preparedness
By World Health Organization, the United Nations
specialized agency for health.
What is an influenza pandemic
An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza
virus appears against which the human population has no immunity,
resulting in several, simultaneous epidemics worldwide with enormous
numbers of deaths and illness. With the increase in global transport and
communications, as well as urbanization and overcrowded conditions,
epidemics due the new influenza virus are likely to quickly take hold
around the world.
A new influenza virus: how it could cause a
pandemic
Annual outbreaks of influenza are due to minor
changes in the surface proteins of the viruses that enable the viruses
to evade the immunity humans have developed after previous infections
with the viruses or in response to vaccinations. When a major change in
either one or both of their surface proteins occurs spontaneously, no
one will have partial or full immunity against infection because it is a
completely new virus. If this new virus also has the capacity to spread
from person-to-person, then a pandemic will occur.
Outbreaks of influenza in animals, especially when
happening simultaneously with annual outbreaks in humans, increase the
chances of a pandemic, through the merging of animal and human influenza
viruses. During the last few years, the world has faced several threats
with pandemic potential, making the occurrence of the next pandemic just
a matter of time.
Consequences of an influenza pandemic
In the past, new strains have generated pandemics
causing high death rates and great social disruption. In the 20th
century, the greatest influenza pandemic occurred in 1918 -1919 and
caused an estimated 4050 million deaths world wide. Although health
care has improved in the last decades, epidemiological models from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA project that
today a pandemic is likely to result in 2 to 7.4 million deaths
globally. In high income countries alone, accounting for 15% of the
worlds population, models project a demand for 134233 million
outpatient visits and 1.55.2 million hospital admissions. However, the
impact of the next pandemic is likely to be the greatest in low income
countries because of different population characteristics and the
already strained health care resources.
If an influenza pandemic appears, we could expect the following:
- Given the
high level of global traffic, the pandemic virus may spread rapidly,
leaving little or no time to prepare.
- Vaccines,
antiviral agents and antibiotics to treat secondary infections will
be in short supply and will be unequally distributed. It will take
several months before any vaccine becomes available.
- Medical
facilities will be overwhelmed.
- Widespread
illness may result in sudden and potentially significant shortages
of personnel to provide essential community services.
- The effect
of influenza on individual communities will be relatively prolonged
when compared to other natural disasters, as it is expected that
outbreaks will reoccur.
Detecting a new pandemic virus
Continuous global surveillance of influenza is key.
WHO has a network of 112 National Influenza Centres that monitors
influenza activity and isolates influenza viruses in all continents.
National Influenza Centres will report the emergence of an unusual
influenza virus immediately to the
WHO Global Influenza Programmeor to 1 of the 4
WHO Collaborating Centres. Rapid detection of unusual influenza
outbreaks, isolation of possible pandemic viruses and immediate alert to
the WHO system by national authorities is decisive for mounting a timely
and efficient response to pandemics.
Preparing for an influenza pandemic
Contingency planning for an event sometime in the future is often
difficult to justify, particularly in the face of limited resources and
more urgent problems and priorities. However, there are two main reasons
to invest in pandemic preparedness:
1. Preparation will mitigate the direct medical and economic effects of
a pandemic, by ensuring that adequate measures will be taken and
implemented before the pandemic occurs.
2. Preparing for the next influenza pandemic will provide benefits now,
as improvements in infrastructure can have immediate and lasting
benefits, and can also mitigate the effect of other epidemics or
infectious disease threats.
A major component of pandemic preparedness is to strengthen the capacity
to respond to yearly epidemics of influenza. A surveillance network for
human and animal influenza and a targeted influenza vaccination
programme are the cornerstones of a national influenza policy.
Ensuring an adequate system for alert, response and disaster management,
should be the basis of every national pandemic preparedness plan.
Depending on the available resources, more specific preparations can be
made, such as developing specific contingency plans, stockpiling of
antivirals, strengthening risk communications, investing in pandemic
vaccine research and promoting domestic production of influenza
vaccines.
WHO has developed an
Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Plan, which defines the
responsibilities of WHO and national authorities in case of an influenza
pandemic. This plan is being updated to incorporate new scientific data
and experience obtained during recent outbreaks that had pandemic
potential. WHO also offers guidance tools and training to assist in the
development of national pandemic preparedness plans.
For more -
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic/en/
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