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The Chinese
senior population is growing at a rate so fast that in the next
two decades China may have as many as 200 million elderly
people. |
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Senior Citizens to be 15 Percent of World Population
Dec. 7, 2005 - This century, the world is expected
to experience an unprecedented aging of the human population in
countries worldwide. Analysts predict significant implications for
economic growth and the well-being of societies. Following is a report
by the Voice of America on what the experts say it will mean.
Populations Are Aging Worldwide
Developed world graying fastest; Japan to be 30%
seniors by 2025
By Zlatica Hoke
Voice of America, Washington, D.C.
Demographers predict that by mid-century, people
age 65 and over will compose about 15 percent of the worlds population,
up from about seven percent today. Aging populations are growing
especially fast in developed countries.
Japan has got one of the most severe cases of
aging of any of the industrialized countries, says Richard Katz, the
New York based editor of The Oriental Economist Report, a monthly
newsletter on Japan.
In the current year, about 20 percent of the
population is over 65 and half of those people over 65 are actually over
75. And the portion of the population, which is over 65 is going to keep
rising," says Mr. Katz. "It will be 23 percent by 2010, 26 percent by
2015 and almost 30 percent by 2025.
While Japan and most of Europe have the fastest
growing elderly populations, the number of people over 65 is also on the
rise in the developing world. According to United Nations projections,
that segment of the worlds population will triple by the end of the
century.
William Butz, President of the Population Reference
Bureau, a research organization here in Washington, says population
aging is a result of declining fertility rates and increasing
longevity.
The Chinese population is definitely aging because
their numbers of birth have been relatively small now for decades. But
it isnt just China," says Mr. Butz. "The U.S., all of Western Europe,
other countries with relatively low fertility rates, [such as] Thailand
-- you could also include South Korea and certainly Japan - are aging.
In many parts of Africa, life expectancy is also going up.
Demographers generally agree that population aging
represents a "success story," with increasing numbers of people
worldwide enjoying longer lives. For example, according to U.N.
demographic projections, a child born today can expect to live, on
average, until the age of 65.
Half-a-century ago, life expectancy at birth was
less than 50 years. However, analysts such as Richard Katz also note
the sustained increase in the number of older people -- usually defined
as persons over the age of 65 -- poses many challenges to their
societies.
How are you going to support the retirees? There
are fewer working people to support the retirees. It has big
consequences for taxes, for budgets, for living standards, how people
live and economic growth, notes Mr. Katz. "So it has huge implications
and they really dont know what to do about it.
Projections indicate that by the middle of the
century, there will be more than 40, perhaps as many as 50, elderly
people per one hundred workers in the United States. In 1940, there were
11 retirees per hundred working-age people. This means that fewer
people had to be supported from tax revenues contributed by working
people. Many analysts say that unless benefits are cut, taxes to pay for
pensions and health care may have to double in the next few decades.
But Ronald Lee, a demographer at the University of
California, says that in the United States, where fertility rates are at
the replacement level and the work force is regularly replenished by
immigrants, the problem is not as acute as in some other industrialized
countries.
He concedes that the cost of caring for the elderly
in the U-S will increase with the rising health care costs and so some
adjustments will have to be made.
We now live longer and healthier than ever
before. Why work shorter? I think the retirement age should be
advanced. I think we as individuals, as a culture and as employers have
to be ready to adjust pay scales so that older workers may get declining
wages and salaries if their productivity declines," says Professor Lee.
"Why take all that leisure at the end of life? I
suggest spreading it throughout life and particularly taking more time
off during the child bearing years.
Analysts say aging populations may pose much
greater challenges for developing countries where the poverty pressures
already strained health care and retirement systems.
Despite their rapid economic growth, China and
India are still mostly poor societies. Chinas current government
pension system barely covers a fifth of the countrys workforce. Its
65-and-older population is likely to double in the next two decades,
perhaps reaching as many as 200 million. And, most analysts say, the
current pension system will not be able to support it. That means, says
Professor Lee, families must start saving for retirement as early as
possible.
Demographers predict a host of social and economic
changes as the global population ages. Joseph Chamie, Director of
Research at the Center for Migration Studies in New York, says many
industries will develop new products and services aimed at the elderly.
Of course, it will also require more people in
that type of work: health care, nursing, services for the elderly and so
on, says Mr. Chamie.
"The entire society will start adjusting to that in
terms of its consumption and its products. And youll see people more
concerned about hair color, for example, more and more things about
staying young and exercising and staying fit and diet and nutrition and
clothing and household things and steps and door knobs and all sorts of
things to help people as they get older to continue living productive
lives.
Demographers say they are just beginning to
understand the broader social, economic and political implications of
the coming "age wave." But they say, it is clear that governments as
well as families and individuals should start preparing as soon as
possible.
Links:
The
complete story at Voice of America
click here.
Audio
report (mp3) -
Zlatica Hoke's Report, 2.29 MB 
Audio report (Real) -
Zlatica Hoke's Report, 939 KB
This story
was first broadcast on the English news program, VOA News Now. For
other Focus reports, please
click here.
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