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Percentage of the population age 65 and older by region - 2000 & 2050 Chart by U.S. Census Bureau

S. Korea Expects to Lead by 2050 in World Senior Citizen Population Boom, Beats Japan, Italy, U.S.

U.S. Seniors to increase 36 to 87 million by 2050

May 23, 2005 – A news story from the Korean Times says South Korea will have the highest proportion of senior citizens in the world by 2050 – 37.3 percent. They project to beat Japan (36.5%), Italy (34.4%), and the U.S. (21.1%). The global elderly population is expected to be 15.9 percent in 2050, according to projections by the United Nations. There are 36 million senior citizens in the U.S. today but this will grow to 87 million by 2050.

In the last few months the United Nations Population Division and the U.N. Population Fund have released several updated reports on the world population and the impact of the increase in those 65 and older.

Here are some highlights from these U.N. reports as they related to the older population.

-- By July 2005, the world will have 6.5 billion inhabitants, 380 million more than in 2000 or a gain of 76 million annually. Despite the declining fertility levels projected over 2005-2050 the world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion according to the medium variant and will still be adding 34 million persons annually by mid-century.

-- Today, 95 per cent of all population growth is absorbed by the developing world and 5 per cent by the developed world. By 2050, according to the medium variant, the population of the more developed countries as a whole would be declining slowly by about 1 million persons a year and that of the developing world would be adding 35 million annually, 22 million of whom would be absorbed by the least developed countries.

-- Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005, is expected to keep on rising to reach 75 years in 2045-2050.
> In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century.
> Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045-2050.
> Because many of these countries are highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the projected increase in life expectancy is dependent on the implementation of effective programs to prevent and treat HIV infection.
>In the rest of the developing world, under similar conditions, life expectancy is projected to rise from just under 66 years today to 76 years by mid-century.

-- In developed countries, 20 per cent of today’s population is aged 60 years or over, and by 2050 that proportion is projected to be 32 per cent.
> The elderly population in developed countries has already surpassed the number of children (persons aged 0-14), and by 2050 there will be two elderly persons for every child.
> In the developing world, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over is expected to rise from 8 per cent in 2005 to close to 20 per cent by 2050.

-- Increases in the median age, the age at which 50 per cent of the population is older and 50 per cent younger than that age, are indicative of population ageing.  Today, just 11 developed countries have a median age above 40 years.  By 2050, there will be 90 countries in that group, 46 in the developing world.  Population aging, which is becoming a pervasive reality in developed countries, is also inevitable in the developing world and will occur faster in developing countries.

-- Very rapid population growth is expected to prevail in a number of developing countries, the majority of which are least developed. Between 2005 and 2050, the population is projected to at least triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and Uganda.

-- The population of 51 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan, the Baltic States and most of the successor states of the former Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005.

-- During 2005-2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the United States of America, Ethiopia and China, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth during that period.

-- Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 47 years in 1950- 1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005, is expected to keep on rising to reach 75 years in 2045- 2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 76 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is 51 years, it is expected to be 67 years in 2045-2050. Because many of these countries are highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the projected increase in life expectancy is dependent on the implementation of effective programs to prevent and treat HIV infection. In the rest of the developing world, under similar conditions, life expectancy is projected to rise from 66 years today to 76 years by mid-century.

-- Mortality in Eastern Europe has been increasing since the late 1980s. In 2000-2005 life expectancy in the region, at 67.9 years, was lower than it had been in 1960-1965 (68.6 years). The Russian Federation and the Ukraine are particularly affected by rises in mortality resulting partly from the spread of HIV.

-- The primary consequence of fertility decline, especially if combined with increases in life expectancy, is population ageing, whereby the share of older persons in a population grows relative to that of younger persons. Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is expected almost to triple, increasing from 672 million in 2005 to nearly 1.9 billion by 2050. Whereas 6 out of every 10 of those older persons live today in developing countries, by 2050, 8 out of every 10 will do so. An even more marked increase is expected in the number of the oldest-old (persons aged 80 years or over): from 86 million in 2005 to 394 million in 2050. In developing countries, the rise will be from 42 million to 278 million, implying that by 2050 most oldest-old will live in the developing world.

-- In developed countries, 20 per cent of today’s population is aged 60 years or over and by 2050 that proportion is projected to be 32 per cent. The elderly population in developed countries has already surpassed the number of children (persons aged 0-14) and by 2050 there will be 2 elderly persons for every child. In the developing world, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over is expected to rise from 8 per cent in 2005 to close to 20 per cent by 2050.

-- Increases in the median age, the age at which 50 per cent of the population is older and 50 per cent younger than that age, are indicative of population ageing. Today, just 11 developed countries have a median age above 40 years. By 2050, there will be 90 countries in that group, 46 in the developing world. Population aging, which is becoming a pervasive reality in developed countries, is also inevitable in the developing world and will occur faster in developing countries.

More information

UN Population Division

World Population Prospects 2004

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