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Senior Citizens, Younger Adults Optimistic About Personal Futures But Expect Nuclear War

Seniors least likely to see biological and nuclear war, or think society's problems will be solved

May 17, 2005 – Although they expect nuclear and biological attacks, senior citizens join other American adults in being optimistic about their personal futures. The seniors, however, are considerably less optimistic than the younger people.

The new survey says all age groups of Americans are overwhelmingly optimistic about their own futures, but have a much grimmer view of the world's future, with a majority expecting a nuclear or biological war to break out within the next 20 years. Of those who were optimistic about their own futures, 72 percent thought it likely there would be a biologic weapons attack against civilians and 56 percent thought there would be a nuclear weapons attack.

Not surprisingly, the greatest optimism (82%) for their personal futures was recorded for people ages 18 through 44. Some 75% of those ages 45 through 64 and 64% of people age 65 or older were optimistic about their own futures.

There were some striking difference between the 65 and over senior group and the younger age groups. In the youngest group (18-24), 63 percent reported increased optimism over the last five years. This growing optimism was, however, shared by only 32 percent of the seniors.

No age group thinks we have the ability to solve all or most of society’s problems, but the seniors were the least optimistic on this with a positive score of only 31 percent.

No age group has positive predictions about the world’s future. Less than 47% of survey respondents in any age group held optimistic views about the world's future. The surveyors said, “Predictably, pessimism was higher among older adults.”

A majority of Americans in all age groups expect a nuclear or biological weapons attack within the next 20 years, but they don't see global warming as a serious problem. Seniors are actually less likely than the youngsters to see these dangers in our future.

A critical finding that the investigators termed "ominous" in regard to maintaining optimism was that the clear majority in each age group said we cannot solve or minimize the major problems facing the society.

"Personal optimism wasn't seriously dented by expectations of nuclear or biological war or concern about global warming or our inability to mitigate major problems facing our society," said Marian Passannante, PhD, of UMDNJ - NJMS's Department of Preventive Medicine. "In essence, they said that a lot of very bad things are likely to happen, but not to me."

This national study conducted by the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey and funded by ShopRite, Inc., claims to be a “first-of-its kind study.”

"What amazed us most was their determined optimism, even as they showed great concern about bad things happening in the world," said Dr. Donald Louria of the Department of Preventive Medicine of NJMS, the study's lead investigator. "We believe this personal optimism is sort of a last barricade. That optimism, however, may be shaky. If it is challenged by a catastrophic event such as another terrorist attack on U.S. soil, a severe infection epidemic or a serious economic downturn, we could see a rapid decline in optimism and in faith in the future."

Louria, a nationally-recognized expert in critical issues likely to affect society in future decades, warned that a steep drop in optimism could trigger a trend toward personally destructive activities, including increased alcohol and drug use, and reckless behaviors such as excessive hedonism, smoking, risky sex, and dangerous automobile and motorcycle driving, as well as withdrawal from involvement in improving the society.

"Downward trends in personal optimism could well be a harbinger of behavioral changes that could be of great consequence for individuals and for our society," Louria noted. "Those in leadership positions in our society, as well as educators, should pay close attention to trends that appear as we move forward with successive surveys in the future."

  Other notable survey findings:

   - In general, blacks were less personally optimistic than whites, less optimistic about the world and more concerned about the potential for nuclear war. But they were also more likely to feel more optimistic about themselves over the last five years.

   - Religious faith seems to have an effect on optimism. Respondents who indicated that religion was very important to them were much more optimistic about their own and the world's future compared to those who listed religion as unimportant, but they were less concerned about global warming.   - The higher the education achievement, the greater the concern about global warming among those ages 18 through 24 and 65 and older.

   - Although 75 percent felt global warming would be a problem in the next 20 years, only 36 percent thought it would be a major problem. Noted Cheryl Kennedy, MD of the Department of Psychiatry at NJMS, "We found this relative lack of concern surprising given the overwhelming scientific consensus that global warming is occurring now and that, if unchecked, it could be disastrous."

This national survey of 2,000 adults was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates in April 2005. The survey's four age categories are: 18 to 24, 25 to 44, 45 to 64, and 65/older. In each age category, 500 interviews were conducted. The four age groups have been combined into a weighted national report to represent the United States population census. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined geographic units. The accuracy of the sample of 2,000 adults in this national survey is within +/- 2.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.

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