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World Not Ready for Aging Boom, Says Survey
Nov. 18, 2004 – The impact of the aging boom is
well known around the world but opinion leaders in the leading
industrialized nations, especially Italy, Germany and Japan, to not
believe their countries are prepared to deal with the consequences,
according to a survey released yesterday by AARP.
The study also found that these leaders see a
higher cost for social services, possible labor shortages, and higher
costs for pensions, and health care as probable outcomes from a larger
older population.
The survey asked whether the respondents felt their
country will be able to effectively handle the challenges and
opportunities of global aging. Seven out of 10 opinion leaders felt that
their countries could handle the challenge, but fewer than one in ten
felt strongly optimistic in this regard.
Leaders from Germany, Canada and the U.S. tended
to be the most optimistic while Italy was the least. However, few saw
current proactive steps being taken to address the aging issue, and the
opinion leaders believe that their countries will "muddle through" as
opposed to taking definitive steps to meet the challenges and exploit
the opportunities.
Despite the likelihood of future labor shortages,
few see any meaningful efforts directed at dealing with an older work
force. The opinion leaders saw few or only limited efforts to train or
retain older workers or remove the barriers to continued employment.
This, despite the fact that six in 10 opinion leaders believe their
countries will experience a labor shortage sometime in the future.
There was strong consensus among those polled that
retirement income needs to be provided by a combination of public
pensions, employer based pensions, individual savings and some form of
continued employment, thus creating a "four-legged" stool for a stable
economic security in retirement.
All categories of respondents concur that the
responsibility for providing for retirement income should be shared from
the four sources identified. These findings are important in light of
the view by the most of the respondents that their public pension
systems, as well as the employer based pension plans, need to be changed
to accommodate the impact of aging in their countries.
Many respondents share the concern that their
nation's retirement benefits will not enable the average retiree to live
comfortably in retirement.
Overall, the need for changes to public retirement
systems is seen as more urgent in Europe and Japan than in North
America. Survey respondents from Italy, France and Germany report a
great need for public sector change; however, those polled anticipate
low political prospects for achieving these changes. Leaders in both
Japan and the UK are only slightly more optimistic. In contrast, strong
optimism is shared by most opinion leaders regarding the potential for
meaningful change to employer-based pension systems, with all countries
but Italy expressing optimism.
The study, conducted in concert with the Wirthlin
Group, polled opinion leaders from the worlds of business, government,
labor, media, academia and non-governmental organizations. The
respondents were from the Group of Seven (G7) nations: France, Germany,
Italy, UK, Japan, the U.S. and Canada. The study was conducted in
preparation for the AARP sponsored Reinventing Retirement Conference
taking place November 17 through 19 in London.
Wirthlin Worldwide is one of the world's top
strategic opinion research and consulting firms. Its clients have
included nearly two-thirds of the Fortune 100, as well as national
associations, government agencies, non-profit organizations and
political candidates. Headquartered in Reston, Va., the firm has offices
throughout the United States, Europe, Asia, and Australia.
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