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Senior Citizen Statistics
Nine Trends in Global Aging Present Challenges, Says
U.S. Study
Report presented at State Department Summit on
Global Aging
 March 16, 2007 – While the world has successfully
learned to live longer, this longevity presents many new challenges that
will require cooperative planning by the world's nations, says a new
report, Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective, which
was presented yesterday at the Summit on Global Aging, hosted by the
U.S. State Department in collaboration with the National Institute on
Aging.
The report provides a succinct description of
population trends that are transforming the world in fundamental ways.
The report, using data from the United Nations, US Census Bureau, and
the Statistical Office of the European Communities as well as regional
surveys, identifies nine emerging trends in global aging. These trends
present a snapshot of challenges and opportunities that will stimulate a
cross-national scientific and policy dialogue.
The report was issued jointly by the Department of
State and the Department of Health and Human Services, National
Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging.
"People are living longer and, in some parts of the
world, healthier lives. This represents one of the crowning achievements
of the last century but also a significant challenge. Longer lives must
be planned for," according to the report..
"Societal aging may affect economic growth and many
other issues, including the sustainability of families, the ability of
states and communities to provide resources for older citizens, and
international relations."
"Despite the weight of scientific evidence, the
significance of population aging and its global implications have yet to
be fully appreciated. There is a need to raise awareness about not only
global aging issues but also the importance of rigorous cross-national
scientific research and policy dialogue that will help us address the
challenges and opportunities of an aging world."
Our Aging World
"We are aging—not just as individuals or
communities but as a world. In 2006, almost 500 million people worldwide
were 65 and older. By 2030, that total is projected to increase to 1
billion—1 in every 8 of the earth’s inhabitants. Significantly, the most
rapid increases in the 65-and-older population are occurring in
developing countries, which will see a jump of 140 percent by 2030."
A Host of Challenges
"While global aging represents a triumph of
medical, social, and economic advances over disease, it also presents
tremendous challenges.
"Population aging strains social insurance and
pension systems and challenges existing models of social support. It
affects economic growth, trade, migration, disease patterns and
prevalence, and fundamental assumptions about growing older.
"Using data from the United Nations, U.S. Census
Bureau, and Statistical Office of the European Communities as well as
regional surveys and scientific journals, the U.S. National Institute on
Aging (NIA), with input from demographers, economists, and experts on
aging, identified nine emerging trends in global aging. Together, these
trends present a snapshot of challenges and opportunities that clearly
show why population aging matters."
While Europe currently has four people of working
age for every older citizen, it will have only two workers per older
citizen by 2050 as a result of the baby boom generation retiring and
life expectancy increasing.
Trends in Global Aging
 Trend 1 – An Aging Population
Since the beginning of recorded human history,
young children have outnumbered older people. Very soon this will
change. For the first time in history, people age 65 and over will
outnumber children under age 5 (Figure 1). This trend is emerging around
the globe. Today almost 500 million people are age 65 and over,
accounting for 8 percent of the world’s population.
Trend 2 – Increasing Life Expectancy
Some nations experienced more than a doubling of
average life expectancy during the 20th century. Life expectancy at
birth in Japan now approaches 82 years, the highest level among the
world’s more developed countries, and life expectancy is at least 79
years in several other more developed countries.
Trend 3 – Rising Number of the Oldest Old
An important feature of population aging is the
progressive aging of the older population itself. Over time, more older
people survive to even more advanced ages. For research and policy
purposes, it is useful to distinguish between the old and the oldest
old, often defined as people age 85 and over. Because of chronic
disease, the oldest old have the highest population levels of disability
that require long-term care. They consume public resources
disproportionately as well.
● The growth of the oldest old population has a
number of implications: l Pensions and retirement income will need to
cover a longer period of life.
● Health care costs will rise even if disability
rates decline somewhat.
● Intergenerational relationships will take on an
added dimension as the number of grandparents and great-grandparents
increase.
● The number of centenarians will grow
significantly for the first time in history. This will likely yield
clues about individual and societal aging that redefine the concept of
oldest old.
The oldest old constitute 7 percent of the world’s
65- and-over population: 10 percent in more developed countries and 5
percent in less developed countries.
More than half of the world’s oldest old live in
six countries: China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, and
Russia.
Trend 4 – Growing Burden of Noncommunicable or
Chronic Diseases
In the next 10 to 15 years, the loss of health and
life in every region of the world, including Africa, will be greater
from noncommunicable or chronic diseases, such as heart disease, cancer,
and diabetes, than from infectious and parasitic diseases. This
represents a shift in disease epidemiology that has become the focus of
increasing attention in light of global aging.
Trend 5 – Aging and Population Decline
While the global population is aging at an
unprecedented rate, some countries are witnessing an historically
unprecedented demographic phenomenon: Simultaneous population aging and
population decline.
More than 20 countries are projected to experience
population declines in the upcoming decades.
Russia’s population, for example, is expected to
shrink by 18 million between 2006 and 2030, a decrease of nearly 13
percent. Nine other countries are projected to experience a decline of
at least 1 million people during the same period.
While Japan’s total population is projected to
decrease by 11 million, the population age 65 and over is projected to
increase by 8 million between 2006 and 2030. The proportion of older
people in Japan should therefore grow from 20 percent in 2006 to about
30 percent in 2030.
Trend 6 – Changing Family Structure
As people live longer and have fewer children,
family structures are transformed. This has important implications in
terms of providing care to older people.
Most older people today have children, and many
have grandchildren and siblings. However, in countries with very low
birth rates, future generations will have few if any siblings. As a
result of this trend and the global trend toward having fewer children,
people will have less familial care and support as they age.
Trend 7 - Shifting Patterns of Work & Retirement
No set of issues has stimulated public discourse
about population aging more than work, retirement, and economic security
in old age. In Western democracies, in Eastern Europe’s transitional
economies, and in much of the less developed world, policymakers
struggle with the balance between public and private income security
systems.
In 1960, men on average could expect to spend 46
years in the workforce and a little more than one year in retirement. By
1995, the number of years in the workforce had decreased to 37 while the
number of years in retirement had jumped to 12.
Trend 8 – Evolving Social Insurance System
In response to escalating pension expenditures, an
increasing number of countries across the development spectrum are
evaluating the sustainability of old-age social insurance systems.
Trend 9 – Emerging Economic Challenges
Population aging will have dramatic effects on
local, regional, and global economies. Most significantly, financial
expenditures, labor supply, and total savings will be affected.
A Window of Opportunity
The authors of the report say, "Some governments
have begun to plan for the long term, but most have not. The window of
opportunity for reform is closing fast as the pace of population aging
accelerates. While Europe currently has four people of working age for
every older person, it will have only two workers per older person by
2050. In some countries the share of gross domestic product devoted to
social insurance for older people is expected to more than double in
upcoming years. Countries therefore have only a few years to intensify
efforts before demographic effects come to bear."
>>
Click here for a pdf of the complete report.
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