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View of President's Bush being viewed by history as a successful President has dropped significantly from January. Seniors, who were less likely than other voters to see is as successful in January, did not change their opinions much, while the rest of the voters had a big change of heart.

Seniors Show Most Loyalty to Bush in Polls Except for War on Iraq

But there is confusion as they express more dissatisfaction with the state of the nation.

By Tucker Sutherland, editor

Oct. 14, 2005 – In looking closely at the survey released yesterday by the Pew Research Center to better understand the opinions of senior citizens about President Bush and the state of the nation, it appears that those 65 and older are the most likely to approve of the President’s performance. Among all voters his approval rating has dropped to 38 percent, but among senior citizens it is 45 percent – the highest of any age group in the survey.

The survey finds the President beset by problems on multiple fronts. But as the chart below shows, more seniors approve of his performance and less disapprove than any other age groups. And, the seniors are the least likely to say the next president should pursue different policies. In comparing the attitudes of men and women over 50, the two sexes have amazingly similar opinions.

 But there seems to be a conflict in the chart below, where senior citizens were the most dissatisfied with the state of the nation in January and are even less satisfied in October, although the baby boomers edge them out in October for being the most dissatisfied. There is an interesting difference here, however, in men and women over 50. The women over 50 are the most dissatisfied group of all and vary significantly from the men.

The older women, however, take what almost seems to be an opposing view on the question of how the Bush Presidency will be viewed over time. The women, today, are much less likely than the older men to think it will be viewed as unsuccessful. The women hedged their bets, however, by leading the men in saying it is too early to tell and by refusing an answer.

So much of public opinion is driven by the Iraq war, it is a good place to test opinions to see what senior citizens are thinking.

In advance of Iraq's Oct. 15 constitutional referendum, public opinion on the war has taken a negative turn. Half of Americans now say the decision to use military force in Iraq was wrong, up from 44% last month.

Senior citizens have been consistent in leading all voters in the opinion that it was a mistake to invade Iraq (chart below).

For the first time since the war began, a majority of Americans (53%) say the U.S. military effort there is not going well. Interestingly, it is the men - both under and over 50 - who are the most adamant that the war is not going well. Older women are the least likely to say it is not going well. What is staggering is the difference in these two polls, only a month apart, for the opinion of the wars progress among men of all ages. Both show a 15 percentage point swing away from the idea that it is going well.

Today as many say they want to see the troops brought home as soon as possible (48%) as say we should keep our troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized (47%). This is in contrast to nearly two years of sentiment in favor of seeing things through.

So, considering these statistics, it is not easy to define the position of senior voters:

• Presidential approval - Seniors 45%, All Voters 38%

• Satisfaction with state of nation - Seniors 29%, All voters 29%

• Bush viewed successful over time - Seniors 28%, All Voters 26%

• Iraq was mistake - Seniors 35%, All Voters 44%

• Iraq going well - Seniors 44%, All Voters 43%

There seems to be no question that senior citizens are expressing more loyalty to the President than are younger voters and one may suspect it is an ethic that is stronger in this age group to be loyal and supportive of the nation's leadership.

It is tough to explain, however, their approval of the President - much stronger than others - with their low satisfaction with the state of the nation, which is the same as all voters at 29%.

The one question, however, that stands out as a strong disagreement between senior citizens and the administration is on the decision to attack Iraq in the first place. It is also on this question than seniors differ most from other voters. Why do they feel so strongly it was a mistake? Maybe because seniors, having seen World War II, and the Korean War - and having a better memory of Vietnam than many younger voters - are more adverse to war than younger people.

In the exit polling after the last presidential election, senior citizens listed the Iraq War as the top issue, while younger voters focused on "moral values." These 65 and older voters gave Bush 51 percent of their vote, to only 48 percent for Kerry. It was the first time in three elections that seniors supported the Republican candidate. Other analysis pointed to healthcare is a big issue with seniors during the election, including the new Medicare drug program passed in Bush's first term.

One thing to note is the difference in the vote for Bush by seniors in the last election - 51% - compared to the approval rating they give him today - 45%.

Seniors may still lean to supporting President Bush but there is clearly signs of slippage.

This latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 6-10 among 1,500 adults. For more information - click here.

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