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Two polls - January 2005 and October 2005 - are compared showing the vote by men and women over and under 50 years of age. The younger men led the way in dropping their feeling that Bush will be deemed successful. The interesting shift, however, is the large jump to predict he will be unsuccessful by all age groups. The least likely to see him as unsuccessful are the women over 50.

Seniors Join Swing to View Bush as Unsuccessful President

But men and women over 50 still most likely to see him as successful

Oct. 13, 2005 - President George W. Bush's poll numbers are going from bad to worse. His job approval rating has fallen to another new low, as has public satisfaction with national conditions, which now stands at just 29%. And for the first time since taking office in 2001, a plurality of Americans, including seniors, believe that George W. Bush will be viewed as an unsuccessful president. Senior citizens were the least likely in the January survey to see Bush being successful and they did not change much in October. But they were passed by the falling opinions of the younger voters, except for the boomers.

About four-in-ten (41%) say that, in the long run, Bush will be an unsuccessful president, up from 27% in January - the highest percentage expressing that view since he took office. About a quarter, 26%, believe Bush will be successful ­ down 10 points since January ­ while 30% say it is too early to tell.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 6-10 among 1,500 adults, finds the president beset by problems on multiple fronts. The president's overall job approval rating has slipped to 38%. And on a number of issues, ranging from the federal budget deficit to relations with U.S. allies, majorities or pluralities say that Bush's policies have made things worse, not better.

In advance of Iraq's Oct. 15 constitutional referendum, public opinion on the war has taken a negative turn. For the first time since the war began, a majority of Americans (53%) say the U.S. military effort there is not going well. Half of Americans now say the decision to use military force in Iraq was wrong, up from 44% last month. Support for keeping U.S. forces in Iraq, which had remained stable over the past year, also has declined. As many Americans now say the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible as favor keeping the troops there until Iraq is stable (48% vs. 47%).

While the presidential election is still more than three years off, Bush's problems are fueling a widespread desire for change. By a sizable margin (69%-25%), more Americans say that as they look ahead to the next election, they would prefer to see a president who offers different policies from the Bush administration rather than one offering programs similar to the Bush administration's. By comparison, as the Clinton administration was nearing the end of its tenure in June 2000, far fewer people expressed a desire for a change of course (52%).

Similarly, more people now believe that Bush will be viewed as an unsuccessful president than said that about President Clinton at any point in his administration. In October 1994, a low point of Clinton's presidency and just a month before the Republicans gained control of Congress, roughly a third (35%) believed Clinton would go down as an unsuccessful president, compared with 41% who say that about Bush currently. However, more people also think Bush will ultimately be successful than expressed that opinion about Clinton in October 1994 (26% vs. 14%).

Public concern about the impact of Bush's policies and decisions span a wide range of issue areas, foreign and domestic. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) say Bush's policies and decisions have made the federal budget deficit worse, compared with just 6% who believe his policies have had a positive impact, and 21% who say they have made the deficit neither better nor worse. Solid majorities also say that Bush's policies have negatively affected the nation's economy (57%) and the gap between rich and poor (57%). While tax reduction has been a centerpiece of Bush's presidency, nearly twice as many say his policies have made the tax system worse than say they have made the system better (40% vs. 22%). National security is the only issue mentioned on which a clear plurality (47%) says Bush's policies have made things better.

However, the public's evaluations of Bush's personal character and leadership, while far below where they were earlier in his presidency, have held fairly steady since the summer. Roughly half view Bush as a strong leader (51%), say he is able to get things done (51%), and say he is trustworthy (49%). These opinions are largely unchanged since July.

And while Bush and his party are struggling, the Democratic Party continues to be viewed in the same negative light as the Republicans. Only about third (32%) approve of the job Democratic leaders in Congress are doing, while the same number has a positive view of Republican congressional leaders (32%). Both measures have declined slightly over the past month (36% approval for each in mid-September).

Impact of Bush's Policies

By a margin of nearly two-to-one, more say President Bush has had a negative (41%) rather than a positive (21%) impact on politics and the way government works in Washington. This reflects an 11-point decline from the number who said in March 2004 that Bush had made things work better in Washington; however, the number saying he has made things worse has risen only two points (from 39% to 41%).

On a wide range of issues, majorities or pluralities of the public say the president's policies and decisions have made things worse rather than better. Negative sentiment is especially strong in judgments about the federal budget deficit, America's economy, and the gap between rich and poor. Nearly half (47%) also say Bush's policies have worsened America's relations with its allies; 22% think he has made U.S. relations with allies better.

In several specific domestic policy domains, pluralities see the president's policies and decisions as having made things worse or had no impact one way or the other. Four-in-ten say his policies have made the tax system and the Social Security system worse (though in the latter case 39% say he's made it neither better nor worse). More say Bush has made race relations worse (29%) than better (16%), but nearly half (48%) say he's had no impact.

The one area where a near-majority believes the president has made things better is in America's national security: 47% say he's made this better, while 30% say he's made it worse.

These attitudes are strongly shaped by partisanship. But aside from national security ­ where 83% of Republicans say Bush has made things better ­ GOP partisans show a notable lack of enthusiasm in their ratings of Bush's performance. About half of Republicans say Bush's policies have improved morality in America (53%), the economy (51%), public education (49%), the tax system (48%), and relations with allies (46%). Fewer Republicans offer positive assessments of Bush's policies in other areas, saying instead that he made things neither better nor worse. But even Republicans are critical when it comes to how Bush's policies have affected the federal budget deficit; nearly half (47%) say his policies have made the deficit worse, just 12% think he has improved the situation.

Few Democrats are willing to say the president has made anything better; about a quarter of Democrats (24%) say Bush has made America's national security better, which is twice the percentage who believe his policies in any other issue area have made things better. Independents are more likely to say Bush has made things worse than better on every issue except national security.

More about this report
Summary of Findings
About this Survey
Questionnaire
Detailed Demographic Tables

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