Wyden-Ryan Plan Could Neutralize Medicare in 2012 Election: Analysis
Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis, Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., unveiled new
Medicare plan, would give seniors a fixed amount of money to buy private
insurance or pay for traditional Medicare - plus video from GOP debate on Gingrich position
By Marilyn Werber Serafini, KHN Staff Writer
Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., left, and House Budget
Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., are interviewed in the Capitol about their new proposal to reform Medicare. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ
Roll Call)
Dec. 16, 2011 - Even with just two congressional supporters, a new Medicare overhaul plan could have big implications for
next year’s congressional election. Indeed, it could neutralize a political problem that has been plaguing Republicans since April, argues
Robert Blendon, a professor of health policy and political analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health.
Last spring, the GOP-controlled House passed a
budget resolution that proved unpopular with Americans, and in particular seniors. That
proposal, sponsored by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., would have limited the government’s spending on Medicare, eliminated
the traditional fee-for-service option and potentially required future seniors to pay more for their coverage.
A Congressional Budget Office analysis projected that by 2030 a typical 65-year old would be required to pay 68 percent
of the total cost of his or her Medicare-covered services. That compares with the
25 percent they would pay under current law. Democrats assailed the Ryan proposal and charged
that Republicans were trying to erode the security provided by the entitlement program that provides coverage to 48 million elderly and
disabled Americans.
Although the proposal never went further than the House, Republicans have worried that it may have hurt their standing
with seniors. In a May special House election in a historically Republic district that includes portions of Buffalo, N.Y., the Democratic
candidate who won, Kathy Hochul, opposed overhauling Medicare, which her opponent favored. A Siena College Research Institute poll in May
showed that Medicare was the top issue for those who voted for the Democrat.
Ryan's proposal left seniors "very
worried about the future of Medicare, even though they were assured it wouldn’t affect them,"
said Blendon.
Thursday's announcement could help Republicans, he said. Ryan and Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., unveiled a new
Medicare overhaul plan, which they said would give beneficiaries a fixed amount of money to buy
private coverage or to pay for a traditional fee-for-service plan. Under the proposal, if Medicare spending rises beyond a certain level, and
Congress does not intercede, seniors would be forced to pick up more of the costs. But the legislators are convinced that Congress would step
in with more palatable alternatives. The legislators were vague on the details.
Gingrich Defends Record, Praises Ryan-Wyden Medicare
Plan
Both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney welcomed the
Ryan-Wyden plan, announced yesterday. Gingrich went on defense after Rep. Michele Bachmann actually him on his record on abortion legislation
while he was in the House of Representatives. From GOP presidential candidate debate of Dec. 15, 2011.
Blendon says that supporting this new proposal will help congressional Republicans to distance themselves from Ryan's
earlier, controversial plan.
To be sure, the mood of senior voters has been vacillating, and seniors promise to be an important voting bloc in the
2012 election.
Before the House approved Ryan's plan in April, Republicans had been steadily siphoning the support of seniors from
Democrats. A key Republican campaign message in the 2010 congressional elections was that the health care law, which most Democrats backed,
cut $500 billion from Medicare over 10 years. Democrats countered that the law would only slow spending increases, at the expense of payments
to medical providers, not seniors. Republicans did well enough to win control of the House. Indeed, they received the largest share of votes
from people over the age of 60 in any election since the 1980s, according to Blendon. "In 2008, and particularly in 2010, [seniors] shifted to
the Republican view," he said.
Now, both parties are vying for the important senior vote. In the 2010 congressional elections, senior voters turned out
in much larger numbers than younger Americans. Thirty-four percent of voters were age 60 or older, even though this age group accounts for
only 24 percent of the adult population, Blendon wrote in a July article in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Still, some believe that the new Ryan-Wyden proposal will anger Republicans in the House who had already stuck their
necks out to vote for the old Ryan proposal.
"By coming on board with Wyden, Ryan has all but conceded his first proposal wasn't politically acceptable," Robert
Laszewski, president of the consulting firm Health Policy and Strategy Associates, wrote in a
blog post Wednesday. "Ryan has given all of those Republicans in the House, who have already
voted for his first Medicare plan, a severe case of heartburn. … To say Ryan’s first Medicare plan was controversial and a huge political risk
is a pretty big understatement."
Marilyn Werber Serafini is the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Robin Toner Distinguished Fellow
based at Kaiser Health News. The fellowship honors the late Robin Toner, The New York Times’ long-time health and politics reporter whose work
often framed the public debate on health issues. KHN is an editorially independent news service of the foundation.
Senior advocates say it is still a voucher system and only winners would be private insurance companies