Nov. 4, 2008 On the day of an historically
presidential election that will see either an African-American win the
presidency or a woman win the vice presidency, senior citizens appear to
have made a sudden shift to Republican nominee Sen. John McCain, just
days before the election.
Older Boomers most likely to support McCain after
favoring Obama in April; Pew Research finds McCain's Negatives Mostly
Political, Obama's More Personal
The Gallup Poll has been tracking the preference of
senior voters each week for months. In the early polls, McCain was a
huge favorite over Sen. Barack Obama, but the gap has steadily narrowed.
Obama took a brief one point lead on September 5 but lost it the next
week. Finally, on October 5, Obama eased ahead in the poll of senior
citizens by 45% to 44%.
The Democrat has not been behind for a month, until
the final Gallup snapshot on November 2, when there was a sudden shift
to McCain. Although, just last week, Gallup found the two candidates
tied among seniors 45% each.
Then, all of a sudden, going into election day the
seniors jump to the Republican and give him a 47% to 42% lead over
Obama.
It has the oldest voters badly out of step with
younger voters, as the final USA Today/Gallup poll for all adults shows
Obama with a 55% to 44% advantage over McCain in 2008 presidential vote.
Pew Research finds
seniors shift to GOP
A similar difference between senior citizens and
younger Americans was noted in a recent survey by the Pew Research
Center. Pew says the proportion of voters identifying with the
Democratic Party has grown significantly since the 2004 election, but
not among elderly voters.
Shockingly, they found, Only among voters age 65
and older has the percentage of voters identifying with the Democratic
Party decreased slightly -- from 49% in 2004 to 47% now.
This slight decline reflects the passing of
members of the New Deal Generation -- who leaned overwhelmingly
Democratic but who are mostly in their 90s now. In addition, voters who
came of age politically in the Eisenhower administration, and are now in
their late 60s, are closely divided in their party affiliation.
This last minute shift noted by Gallup may mean
there will be some surprises today. Senior citizens have historically
been loyal voters with greater percentages of those age 65 and older
going to the polls than any other age group.
Several key states most notably Florida have
very large senior citizen populations that could make a difference in
the results. There are others, too, like Arizona, Nevada and Ohio, with
large senior citizen populations.
Gallup Poll Tracking of
Voter Preference by Age Group
Nov. 4, 2008 On the day of an historically
presidential election that will see either an African-American win the
presidency or a woman win the vice presidency, senior citizens appear to
have made a sudden shift to Republican nominee Sen. John McCain, just
days before the election.
