Last Generation to Attend Segregated Schools Getting
More Comfortable with Obama
If race is an issue it is most probably among senior
citizens; who say that most of their friends will be hesitant to support
a black candidate
By Tucker Sutherland, editor & publisher,
SeniorJournal.com
Sen. John McCain
Sen. Barack Obama
Oct. 20, 2008 – If any voters are likely to vote
against Sen. Barack Obama because of race, it will probably be senior
citizens, the last generation to attend segregated schools in the U.S.
and the only ones old enough to remember the bitter battle over the 1964
Civil Rights Act. At least information from several polls indicates
there may be an anti-African American feeling still alive among a few
elderly voters – the age group most reluctant to support
Obama.
Gallup has tracked the presidential preference of
voters on a daily basis and has also published reports on the voter
preference by age group. Senior citizens – those age 65 and older – have
consistently favored Sen. John McCain over Obama in the Gallup poll.
Older Boomers most likely to support McCain after
favoring Obama in April; Pew Research finds McCain's Negatives Mostly
Political, Obama's More Personal
This is somewhat surprising, since these older
voters have been strongly and consistently opposed to the investment
accounts for Social Security that were proposed by President George Bush
and supported by McCain.
And, the senior citizens led all other age groups
in earlier polls in saying the war on Iraq was a mistake, something else
that has been strongly backed by McCain.
So, on what could have been considered the two
biggest issues for senior citizens, before the economic collapse,
private investment accounts for Social Security and the war against
Iraq, the oldest voters strongly disagree with Sen. McCain.
This may be explained by some of the exit polling
after the last presidential election, when CBS and CNN pundits declared
older voters won the election for President Bush.
Seniors are traditional Democrats
Mr. Bush received support from 53 percent of voters
60 and over, compared to 46 percent for Kerry, according to the exit
polls. The vote was closer for those 65 and older, with only 51 percent
supporting Bush and 48 percent for Kerry.
This was surprising, because in the three prior
elections, voters 60 and over supported the Democratic nominee. Al Gore
received 51 percent of the senior vote to Bush’s 47 percent. Bill
Clinton held a 12-point advantage over Bush’s father, and a 4-point
advantage over Bob Dole.
CBS decided the president's appeal to seniors in
2004 appeared to stem from his positions on social issues, not basic
political issues. Twenty-one percent of voters over 60 named moral
values as the issue that mattered most in their vote decision.
The seniors did not like gay marriage or unlimited
abortion. Only 16 percent of seniors supported these issues.
In this year’s election, however, there do not seem
to be any high profile political issues or social issues grabbing hold
with the voters. So, why are seniors leaning so heavily toward McCain,
since they have a history of voting Democratic?
Being unable to determine a factor raises at least
the possibility of reluctance to vote for a black person.
A recent Harris poll went right at this issue
and the issue of age.
When voters were asked which of these – age, race
or gender – is the most important to consider in choosing a president,
only 5% of older voters (in this case those age 63 and older) said the
candidate’s race and the overwhelming majority 71% said none of these
should matter. The total for all voters were not far off the senior
opinions – 6% said race was important and 72% said none of the three.
But the answers took a different turn when the
question was phrased differently.
"How hesitant, if at all, do you think people you
know would be in voting for each of the following for President?"
This is a technique often used by pollsters to get
a more honest indication of how the respondents actually feel on
questions where they may be reluctant to reveal their true feelings.
Sixty-one percent of seniors said their friends
would be hesitant to vote for a black person, while only 48% of younger
voters were in agreement. It suggests this last generation of Americans
who lived in a segregated society have not become totally comfortable
with black Americans.
In all fairness, however, it must be noted that the
older voters said 55% of their friends would be hesitant to vote for
someone over age 70, and 43% said their friends would be reluctant to
vote for a woman.
But what stands out is the difference between the
“matures,” as Harris calls them, and younger voters. While among all
adults, 48% said their friends would be hesitant to vote for an African
American, that number was much larger for the oldest voters – 61%. The
closest age group was the one for people age 32 to 43, which said 49% of
their friends would be hesitant to vote for a black candidate – still
far below the senior group.
Something interesting in senior vote
But, there is something interesting happening in
the senior vote – it is gradually but steadily getting tighter.
Back in July, the Harris Poll four 50% of Matures
(those over 63) saying they would vote for John McCain, while only 29%
would vote for Senator Obama. Harris said this indicates that “some of
McCain’s strongest support comes from this generation.”
Harris revisited the race in August and found
Obama’s lead is critically dependent on his 33 point lead among people
under 32 – but they are usually are the least likely generation to
actually vote. If they do not vote very heavily in November this would
hurt Obama’s chances. McCain leads among "Matures," those over 62, by
nine points, the generation that is usually the most likely to vote,
said Harris. The actual preference for older voters in this poll was 49%
for McCain and 40% for Obama.
What is interesting in comparing the polls is that
in July McCain had 50% of the senior support and in August he had 49% -
virtually unchanged. But, Obama had only 29% of seniors backing him in
July and this had expanded to 40% in August.
Use the interactive
tool at Pew Research Center to track generational differences in
political party affiliation over time.
Click here...
Senior citizens appear to have found Obama more
acceptable as the campaign has progressed.
One theory is that these seniors – products of
segregation – had little chance to ever know black people as they grew
up. Early reluctance to support a black candidate may not have been as
much an emotional distrust or dislike for black people, as it was jan
“uncomfortable feeling.”
It is a far reach to imagine a person becoming
president, who was not considered good enough to go to school with you,
eat in the same restaurants, or drink from the same water fountain.
By the end of September, Gallup had the senior vote
getting even tighter – 47% for McCain and 43% for Obama.
In the latest numbers, however, Obama has taken the
lead. On October 12 and October 5, Gallup released results showing the
preference of senior citizens. Obama had taken the lead over McCain –
45% to 44% for both weeks.
Since the early polling in July, Obama has gained
from 29% of the senior vote to 45% - and increase of 16 percentage
points. McCain over that time has slipped only a little, from 50% to
44%.
