Poll Indicates Old Age is Bigger Burden than Being
Black in Elections, But Seniors Disagree
Over half of adults say friends would hesitate to
vote for person over 70; oldest adults say over 60% would hesitate to
vote for black person
Sen. John McCain
Sen. Barack Obama
Sept. 25, 2008 – A recent Harris Poll has uncovered
two important keys to who wins this year’s presidential race. When the
pollsters asked adults if they thought people they know would be
hesitant to vote for a person over age 70, a black or a woman, most
(52%) said their friends would hesitate to vote for the senior citizen.
But, the people polled that were age 63 or older – a key voting block in
America – were most likely (61%) to say their friends would be reluctant
to vote for the black candidate.
Older Boomers most likely to support McCain after
favoring Obama in April; Pew Research finds McCain's Negatives Mostly
Political, Obama's More Personal
So, it looks like both candidates are carrying some
heavy baggage. Republican Senator John McCain has just turned 72 and
Democrat Senator Barack Obama is the son of an African man and white
American mother.
The analysis by Harris focuses on the ageism as the
biggest problem.
The poll does find considerable reluctance among
voters to cast their vote for a person over 70 years of age – only about
one out of ten think it is a good idea. Older Americans, not
surprisingly, are more likely to think this is a good idea than younger
people, but just barely (14%).
The senior citizens and the younger voters say they
are much more in support of electing a woman or African-American,
according to the poll.
The Harris analysis says the results suggest “that
ageism - specifically John McCain’s age - is potentially a more serious
barrier to election than racism - specifically Barack Obama’s race.” The
analysis does suggest, however, that “racism, sexism and ageism are all
potentially powerful factors that can inhibit people from voting for a
black, female or older candidate.”
Obama’s problem may be almost as big, because of
the overwhelming opinion of the senior citizen group that their friends
would be hesitant to vote for an African-American. What makes this such
a big problem is that seniors are such loyal voters.
In the 2006 congressional elections, 22 percent of
18- to 24-year-olds voted compared with 63 percent of people 55 and
older, according to the Census Bureau. Although, the younger voters do
turn out in bigger numbers for a presidential election.
This Harris Poll was conducted with 2,710 adults
who were surveyed online between August 11 and 17, 2008 before John
McCain nominated Sarah Palin as his running mate.
While most people say they would be neither pleased
nor displeased if a black, female or a candidate over 70 were elected,
the remainder are much more likely to say they would be pleased than
displeased by the election of a woman (by 37% to 11%) or an
African-American (by 30% to 11%).
However, they are much more likely to be displeased
than pleased (by 32% to 9%) if someone over 70 is elected.
When asked what was most important thing for voters
to consider – race, age or gender – most chose age. And, the “Matures”
(that means people age 63 or older in Harris polling) were more likely
than younger people to pick age.
Most people (72%), however, say that the sex, age
or race of the candidate should make "absolutely no difference."
Harris also asked respondents how they thought
people they know would vote. This is a technique often used by pollsters
to get a more honest indication of how the respondents feel on questions
where they may be reluctant to reveal their true feelings.
The younger adults said they still think their
friends would be most hesitant to vote for someone over age 70. But,
there was an interesting shift among the oldest group – they were the
most likely to say the people they know would be most reluctant to vote
for an African-American.
Sixty-one percent of seniors said their friends
would be hesitant to vote for a black person, while only 48% of younger
voters were in agreement. It suggests this last generation of those who
attended segregated schools and lived in a segregated society have not
become totally comfortable with black Americans.
Other key findings of the poll include:
●
More people (36%) say that it would be a bad thing if someone over 70
were elected president than would feel this way if an African-American
(11%) or a woman (12%) were elected. More people say that it would be a
good thing if a black (38%) or a woman (34%) was elected than think it
would be good to elect someone over 70 (10%).
●
Attitudes to electing an African-American or someone over 70 are, of
course, closely related to party identification. Fully 52 percent of
Democrats but only 17 percent of Republicans think it would be good to
elect a black president. And a similar proportion (52%) of Democrats
thinks it would be bad to elect someone over 70, a view shared by only
18 percent of Republicans.
The poll analysis had this disclaimer, “Our
research experience suggests that these results may underestimate the
number of people who might be influenced by prejudices such as sexism,
ageism, or racism because some people are reluctant to admit to their
prejudices or may believe they are not prejudiced when they are.
“Harris Interactive therefore included a so-called
projective question in which people were asked if they thought that
people they knew might hesitate to vote for a candidate because of his
or her race, sex or age.
“Far more people said yes to this question than
admitted to being influenced themselves. Fully 52 percent of all adults
believe that people they know would be at least somewhat hesitant to
vote for someone over 70, while almost as many believe that people they
know would be somewhat hesitant to vote for an African-American (48%) or
a woman (45%).”
Good/Bad Thing If Woman/Black/Someone over 70
Elected President
"If someone with the following characteristics was
well qualified and was elected president, do you think this would be . .
. ?
A GOOD THING:
Total
GENERATION
GENDER
Echo
Boomers(18-31)
Gen. X(32-43)
Baby Boomers(44-62)
Matures(63+)
Male
Female
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Someone who is a woman
38
37
34
39
44
34
42
Someone who is black or African
American
34
38
30
34
34
34
34
Someone over
70 years old
10
8
8
11
14
11
9
A BAD THING:
Total
GENERATION
GENDER
Echo
Boomers(18-31)
Gen. X(32-43)
Baby Boomers(44-62)
Matures(63+)
Male
Female
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Someone over
70 years old
36
41
34
35
30
30
41
Someone who is a woman
12
17
11
9
11
13
11
Someone who is black or African
American
11
11
10
11
15
11
12
Most Important Factor
- Age, Race or Gender
- For Voters to Think
of
"Which one of the following do you think is the
most important factor for voters to think of in future presidential
elections as they choose different presidential candidates
- if all the
candidates are equally qualified?"
Total
GENERATION
GENDER
Echo
Boomers(18-31)
Gen. X(32-43)
Baby Boomers(44-62)
Matures(63+)
Male
Female
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Absolutely no
difference
72
68
72
74
71
70
73
The age of the
candidate, if he/she is over 70
18
17
17
17
20
18
17
The race of the candidate, if
he/she is black or African American
6
8
5
6
5
7
5
The gender of the candidate, if she
is a woman
5
7
6
3
4
5
4
Considerable/Some Hesitation to Vote For
Woman/Black/Someone Over 70
- By Generation, Gender
"How hesitant, if at all, do you think people you
know would be in voting for each of the following for President?"
Summary of "Considerable/Some Hesitation
Total
GENERATION
GENDER
Echo
Boomers(18-31)
Gen. X(32-43)
Baby Boomers(44-62)
Matures(63+)
Male
Female
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Someone over
70 years old
52
48
54
52
55
48
55
Someone who is black or African
American
48
44
49
45
61
49
48
Someone who is a woman
45
49
46
41
43
46
44
Good/Bad Thing If Woman/Black/Someone Over 70
Elected President (All Adults)
"If someone with the following characteristics was
well qualified and was elected president, do you think this would be….?
Base: All adults
Very
Good
SomewhatGood
NeitherGoodNor Bad
SomewhatBad
Very
Bad
Not
Sure
SUMMARY
Good
Thing
Bad
Thing
Someone who is a woman
%
21
18
44
7
5
6
38
12
Someone who is black or African-
American
%
18
16
48
7
5
7
34
11
Someone over
70 years old
%
3
7
48
25
11
6
10
36
To read the complete report, which includes more
analysis and charts,
click here.
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the
United States between August 11 and 17, 2008 among 2,710 adults (aged 18
and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and
household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line
with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score
weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be
online.
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100%
due to rounding
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they
use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which
are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling
error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error
associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey
weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the
words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be
calculated are different possible sampling errors with different
probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response
rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close
to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from
among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive
surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the
adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to
participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical
sampling error can be calculated.
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