|
E-mail this page to a friend!
Senior Citizen Politics
Does Negative Poll on McCain Indicate Senior
Citizens Want a Democrat?
About half of adults say they won't vote for him, 59%
of seniors
By Tucker Sutherland, editor
 June 27, 2007 – A new Harris Poll indicates there
is little chance for Senator John McCain to become the U.S. President,
because 47 percent of U.S. adults say they would not vote for him. Who
is most likely to say they would not vote for him – senior citizens, of
course, who seem to always be at the extreme end of polls.
What Harris refers to as the “Matures” are people
age 62 and older and this is the only age group in which a majority – a
healthy one at that – say they would not vote for McCain if he is the
Republican nominee.
A hefty 58% of Matures say they would not vote for
him and the next closest age group with this opinion is the “Baby
Boomers” (ages 43 to 61) with 49% saying no to McCain.
Looking at the no vote by political party, Harris
finds only 21% of Republicans have this opinion but a big 73% of
Democrats feel this way. Independents were slightly less than the total
of all adults (47%) saying they would not vote for McCain – 45%.
Harris also looked at political philosophy and
found these percentages saying they would not vote for the senator –
conservatives 29%, moderates 46% and liberals 74%.
Looking at who would vote for McCain, just three in
ten (29%) say they would, although, an additional one in five (21%) are
not sure.
Surprisingly, the Matures, who led all age groups
in saying they would not vote for McCain, are second in the percentage
saying they would vote for him – 31%. The age group most likely to
support McCain is what Harris calls “Gen X” (ages 31 to 42) at 33%.
The reason the Matures rank so high on both sides
of the question is that there are so few “not sures” among the older
adults. The “unsures” among all adults is 21% but only 11% of seniors
are unsure.
The most recent Harris Poll on the Republican
nomination found that only 18 percent of potential Republican primary
voters preferred Senator McCain, and he trailed both Rudy Giuliani (30%)
and Fred Thompson (22%).
Looking at this latest poll, however, may be
evidence that none of these candidates would do well with the same
questions as those asked about McCain.
First, remember that senior citizens are the most
likely age group to actually vote in elections. So, what senior citizens
think is a major factor in determining the winners and losers.
The large percentage of older voters (Matures and
Baby Boomers) saying they would not support McCain is an indication that
older voters may just be determined to elect a Democrat. Just 29% of
Conservatives and 21% of Republicans say they would not vote for McCain,
but that just may be their way of saying they prefer one of the other
Republican candidates, which is not likely to be what the Liberals and
Moderates, or Democrats and Independents are thinking.
In fact, three in five (59%) Republicans say they
will vote for him but just one-quarter (28%) of Independents say they
would vote for Senator McCain, according to Harris.
So, again, it is really the non-Republicans who are
providing the big negative feedback on a McCain run for the presidency,
and that just may be where most senior citizens are today.
Senior citizens have been the most adamant in
opposing the Iraq War, however, and McCain’s support for the surge, and
even more expansion of the military effort, may be fermenting a larger
negative opinion than some other Republican candidates. In this poll,
however, only two in five cited this as a problem for McCain.
Here are some of the other highlights from the
Harris Poll analysis:
● Half of U.S. adults (53%) say they like him
as a person while two in five (42%) like his track record as U.S.
Senator.
● People are divided on McCain’s political
opinions – 37 percent like them and 35 percent do not like them. What
might be troubling for the Senator’s campaign is that over one-quarter
are not sure of how they feel about each of these three items.
● Over half of Republicans (63%), Democrats
(51%) and Independents (57%) like John McCain as a person.
● Just over half of Republicans like his track
record as senator (53%) and 52 percent like his political opinions,
perhaps reflecting some of the lingering maverick image.
● Over three in five adults each agree that his
military background would be an asset and that he is a very intelligent
person (63% for each statement).
● Over half (57%) disagree that he lacks
experience and is unqualified to be president, meaning that he has
presidential qualifications in the minds of the American public.
● A criticism of the Senator has been that he
is "too old", but only one-quarter (28%) agree that he is too old and
that his health is an issue. With just under half (46%) disagreeing,
this may be a non-issue.
● Just two in five agree that he inspires
confidence personally while one-third (32%) disagree.
● Two in five also agree that his support for
the surge and the continuation of the war in Iraq is a problem with
one-third (35%) disagreeing. His stand on this issue and the current
disapproval of the war among the general public seems to be an area of
vulnerability for the Senator.
● One-third say Senator McCain is neither too
liberal nor too conservative while eight percent say he is too liberal
and 19 percent say he is too conservative. Two in five (41%) are not
sure.
● One in five (21%) conservatives as well as 17
percent of Republicans say that Senator McCain is too liberal. If a
candidate enters the race claiming "conservative roots", this could
cause conservatives who might be supporting McCain to take a second
look, according to Harris.
VOTING
FOR JOHN MCCAIN
"If John
McCain was the Republican nominee for President, which is closest to the
way you think?"
Base: All adults
|
|
Total |
Philosophy |
Party |
|
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Would vote for him (NET) |
29 |
49 |
26 |
9 |
59 |
9 |
28 |
|
I definitely would vote for him |
8 |
16 |
7 |
2 |
19 |
2 |
6 |
|
I probably would vote for him |
21 |
33 |
19 |
7 |
40 |
7 |
22 |
|
Would not vote for him (NET) |
47 |
29 |
46 |
74 |
21 |
73 |
45 |
|
I probably would not vote for
him |
23 |
17 |
22 |
33 |
13 |
29 |
28 |
|
I definitely would not vote for
him |
24 |
13 |
24 |
41 |
9 |
44 |
17 |
|
I wouldn’t vote at all |
3 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Not sure |
21 |
19 |
25 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
26 |
VOTING
FOR JOHN MCCAIN – BY GENERATION
"If John
McCain was the Republican nominee for President, which is closest to the
way you think?"
|
|
Total |
Echo Boomers
(18-30) |
Gen X (31-42) |
Baby Boomers
(43-61) |
Matures (62+) |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Would vote for him (NET) |
29 |
23 |
33 |
29 |
31 |
|
I definitely would vote for him |
8 |
5 |
12 |
7 |
10 |
|
I probably would vote for him |
21 |
17 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
|
Would not vote for him (NET) |
47 |
39 |
40 |
49 |
58 |
|
I probably would not vote for
him |
23 |
23 |
21 |
22 |
25 |
|
I definitely would not vote for
him |
24 |
16 |
19 |
27 |
33 |
|
I wouldn’t vote at all |
3 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
* |
|
Not sure |
21 |
31 |
23 |
19 |
11 |
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of
2,372 U.S. adults conducted online between June 5 and 11, 2007 by Harris
Interactive®.
>>
For the complete report at Harris Interactive, click here
Click to More Senior News on the
Front Page
Copyright: SeniorJournal.com |
