|
New Political Survey of Older Americans Finds
Boomers Want Third Party, Seniors Focus on Candidates Personal
Qualities
Over 9 in 10 (91%) of those 70 or
older are registered to vote and 90% voted in the 2000 presidential election
July 20, 2004 A new AARP survey examines the
political thoughts and differences of three age groups 40-57, 58-69
and 70+ - but primarily focuses analysis on the Baby Boomer generation -
the largest electoral bloc in the nation. It finds the Boomers hard to
predict and says 56% say the country needs a new strong third political
party.
The survey also suggests that Boomers are more
skeptical than Silents (58-69) and GIs (70+) about the political
process, and more likely to regard issues (and not political parties or
personalities) as the most important consideration when casting votes.
Unlike the GI Generation and the Silent Generation for whom issue
politics takes a strong back seat to the personal qualities of
candidates, Boomers are almost equally likely to pay attention to issues
as personal qualities when choosing a candidate for national office.
Focusing on issues, which can change easily, may lead to a more volatile
and fragmented electorate.
The AARP The Magazine survey of three
generations of voters was conducted by RoperASW, reveals that Boomers
77 million strong - not only defy convenient political categorization,
but are also increasingly disenchanted with the two party system. In
fact, 56% of Boomers surveyed say that the country needs a new strong
third political party. Along with other startling findings, this
sentiment suggests that the Boomer vote is up for grabs.
The message of the survey for both political
parties is simple: If you think you know Boomers, think again.
Portrayed as liberal during the 1960's, the majority of Boomers, now
comfortably middle-aged and moving into positions of power, hold
decidedly liberal positions on some issues (e.g. abortion, gun control,
stem cell research) but they also endorse some conservative values. For
example, they overwhelmingly support the death penalty, harsher prison
sentences and school prayer. Far from monolithically liberal or
conservative, the Boomer generation is now clearly fragmented.
Furthermore, this fragmentation is leading
Boomers to focus increasingly on issues rather than personalities. In
fact, Boomers were almost evenly split on whether a candidate's personal
qualities matter more to them than his or her positions on key issues.
Older Americans, by a sizable margin, felt that personal traits mattered
most.
"Boomers evidently like their politics a la
carte -- a position from here, a position from there," says Hugh
Delehanty, Editor-in-Chief, AARP Publications. "The Boomers' seemingly
contradictory ideological convictions make it increasingly difficult for
politicians to pin down the demographic."
"This has significant implications for both
political parties," explains John Rother, Director of Policy and
Strategy for AARP. "We know that older voters are counted on for both
their loyalty and participation on Election Day. The jury is still out
on Boomers."
The AARP The Magazine survey was conducted from
a pool of 1,804 Americans split evenly between the Boomer Generation
(ages 40 to 57), the Silent Generation (ages 58 to 69), and the GI
Generation (ages 70 and older). Some examples of the survey's findings:
On social issues ...
* 57% of Boomers support abortion rights,
compared with 43% of GIs
* 26% of Boomers support gay marriage,
compared with only 11% of GIs
* 59% of Boomers feel that the federal
government has a responsibility to
provide healthcare to all citizens, compared
with only 48% of GIs
On economic issues ...
* 51% of Boomers describe themselves as
fiscally conservative
* 20% of Boomers call themselves "very" or
"moderately" liberal, compared
with an even smaller 15% of GIs
Other findings ...
* 56% of Boomers feel the country needs a
strong third political party,
while 37% of GIs agree
* Boomers are almost evenly split on whether a
candidate's personal
qualities matter more to them than his or
her positions on key issues;
GIs, however, felt that personal qualities
mattered most, by a sizable
margin of 62% to 25%
* Boomers are less likely than GIs to believe
that it is very important
to serve in the military, pay taxes, or pay
attention to political
issues
* 72% of Boomers believe the federal
government has a definite
responsibility to protect the environment.
* 32% of Boomers trust the government to do
what is right all or most of
the time.
"This generation's vote is there for the
taking, but the political parties
are going to have to start paying attention to what
they care most about and
how they differ from preceding generations in order
to win them over in this
election," says Rother.
A Summary of Selected Findings
Every candidate for elected office knows that the
older population is a force with which to be reckoned. Older people are
the group most likely to read newspapers, stay apprised of issues,
register to vote, and actually turn out on election day. This is
certainly true of what has been called "the greatest generation;" those
individuals who came of age in the 1940s, fought the second world war,
were parents to the baby boomers, witnessed the civil rights and women's
movements, and the political scandals of the 70s and 80s.
Today, this older group of voters, so revered by
politicians, is passing on. Their children, the boomers, are between the
ages of 40 and 57, and within 20 years, will become the older voting
group. Will these boomers be as active as their parents in politics?
Will they "age" into the roles their parents occupied in the political
process, or will they continue to be innovative and independent minded
boomers who happen to have gray hair and bad knees?
In January 2004, AARP Knowledge Management, AARP
The Magazine, and Roper ASW collaborated on a study designed to provide
a comprehensive look at the political behavior and values of baby
boomers (aged 40 to 57), the "silent" generation (aged 58 to 69), and
the "GI" generation (aged 70+). The guiding question that prompted this
research was AARP's celebration of the contributions of the greatest
generation and speculation about what will happen when this generation
passes on.
A detailed survey was conducted among 1,804
respondents 630 Boomers, 585 Silents, and 589 GIs. The survey focused
on important generational influences, attitudes toward emblematic
social, ethical, and economic issues, voting behavior, party
affiliation, beliefs about the role and priorities of government, and
activism and civic involvement.
A comprehensive report on the findings from this
survey will be issued in September, 2004. This summary contains selected
findings and an annotated questionnaire of all results segmented by age
group.
The GI Generation a Political Profile
There are 26 million people aged 70 or older in the
United States.
> These people are largely conservative on economic
(59%) and social (49%) issues, and about one-third of them say they have
become more conservative on economic, social, foreign policy, moral, and
legal issues as they have aged.
> Over 9 in 10 (91%) of this age group are
registered to vote and 90% voted in the 2000 presidential election.
>About 4 in 10 (44%) name the 40s, 50s, and 60s as
the decades which made the most lasting impression on their views.
> Majorities of GIs consider the Great Depression
(51%), World War II (79%), the Vietnam War (52%), and the September 11
terrorist attack (84%) to be major influences on their views of
government and politics.
> Franklin Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, and John F.
Kennedy are the national leaders GIs most admire for making
contributions to the United States.
> When asked what matters most when choosing
candidates for national office, over 6 in 10 (62%) of GIs say that
personal qualities are most important.
> Only 8% consider political party, and 25%
consider positions on issues to be most important. Perhaps because of
their age, the GIs are the least likely age group to participate in most
political activities aside from voting.
The GIs' conservatism extends across many social,
moral, and economic issues. Aside from their support for more welfare
programs for those with low incomes, and more environmental regulation,
GIs reliably support those issues emblematic of conservatives, and
opposed those emblematic of liberals.
Specifically, large majorities of people aged 70+
support prayer in school, the death penalty, stricter prison sentences,
and curbing civil liberties to deter terrorism. They oppose gay marriage
and legal abortions.
Support for more welfare programs, and greater
environmental regulation is not particular to the GI cohort. Majorities
of Boomers and Silents also favor these policies. It may be the case
that support for welfare and environmental regulation is no longer
emblematic of conservative or liberal values.
Welfare programs have been less contentious since
the welfare reforms of the 1990s, and support for environmental
regulation could be attributable to self-interest as well as concern for
the greater community.
GIs do reject privatizing Social Security and
Medicare although many conservative policymakers in the U.S. would
make changing these entitlement programs a priority. Again, GI rejection
of privatization may be due to self-interest or the strong connection
to, and support for, these programs we have noticed in many other
surveys.
The Baby Boomers a Political Profile
There are 78 million people aged 40 to 57 in the
United States. Boomers are slightly less conservative than GIs on
economic (51%) and social (44%) issues, but about 4 in 10 of them say
they have become more conservative on economic, social, foreign policy,
moral, and legal issues as they have aged. Over 8 in 10 (84%) of this
age group are registered to vote and 82% voted in the 2000 presidential
election.
A very large majority of Boomers (86%) name the
60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s as the decades which made the most lasting
impression on their views. Majorities of Boomers consider the civil
rights movement (59%), the women's rights movement (51%), the Vietnam
War (67%), and the September 11 terrorist attack (90%) to be major
influences on their views of government and politics. John F. Kennedy
and Ronald Reagan are the national leaders Boomers most admire for
making contributions to the United States.
When asked what matters most when choosing
candidates for national office, Boomers are split over the importance of
issues (43%) versus personality (46%). Boomers are the most likely age
cohort to participate in the 12 political activities listed in the
survey, and the most likely (33%) to say they would like to become more
politically active.
Boomers do not differ greatly from their parents on
many issues emblematic of conservative or liberal values. Again, boomers
support more welfare programs for those with low incomes, and more
environmental regulation, and are similar to GIs in their support for
prayer in schools, the death penalty, and stricter prison sentences, as
well as their rejection of greater government regulation. However, on
selected social issues, Boomers differ with the GI generation. Almost 6
in 10 Boomers support legal abortion and stem cell research, and Boomers
are over twice as likely as their parents to support gay marriage. If
one considers the issue of gay marriage to be on the frontier of liberal
social issues, then the 26% of Boomers who support it means that one can
probably assume even greater support among Boomers for liberal social
issues that are not so close to the frontier of liberal values.
The Silent Generation a Political Profile
There are 30 million people aged 58 to 69 in the
United States.
This Silent Generation are more similar to the
Boomers than they are to the GI generation 51% are conservative on
economic and 45% are conservative on social issues, and similar to
Boomers, about 4 in 10 of them say they have become more conservative on
economic, social, foreign policy, moral, and legal issues as they have
aged. Over 9 in 10 (92%) of this age group are registered to vote and
88% voted in the 2000 presidential election.
About 4 in 10 (43%) of Silents name the 50s and 60s
as the decades which made the most lasting impression on their views.
Majorities of Silents consider the civil rights movement (50%), the
Vietnam War (65%), and the September 11 terrorist attack (90%) to be
major influences on their views of government and politics. John F.
Kennedy, Franklin Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan are the national leaders
Silents most admire for making contributions to the United States.
When asked what matters most when choosing
candidates for national office, Silents are similar to GIs in that they
consider personal qualities to be more important (59%) than positions on
issues (32%). Perhaps suggesting an affect of aging on political
participation besides voting, Silents are slightly less likely than
Boomers, but more likely than GIs, to engage in political activism, and
to say they would like to be more politically active (24%).
Silents are very similar to GIs in their
conservatism on many issues school prayer, curbing civil liberties,
prayer in schools, and stricter prison sentences. However, Silents are
closer to Boomers than to GIs on some emblematic social issues
majority support for stem cell research and legal abortions, and
tolerance of gay marriage among about one-fifth of Silents.
As with the
Boomer cohort, if we consider the issue of gay marriage to be at the
frontier of liberal social issues, then the 19% of Silents who support
it means that one could probably assume even greater support among
Silents for liberal social issues that are not so close to the frontier
of liberal values. In fact, William Strauss and Neil Howe suggest that
it is the Silent generation that instructed Boomers to think of many
social issues in a more liberal fashion.
How Will the Boomers Fill the Political Shoes of
Their Elders?
This survey suggests that on many measures, Boomers
have aged into mid-life roles that would be familiar to their parents,
and will continue to age into roles that their parents occupy now.
However, there are some substantial differences among Boomers, Silents,
and GIs that will shape Boomers into a political force different from
both Silents and GIs. Whether or not the popular characterization of the
Boomers as self-interested is correct, this survey suggests that,
politically, Boomers of all orientations are now and will continue to
engage in politics on their terms, and with clear self-interest in mind.
The best illustration of this is the manner in
which Boomers regard entitlements and obligations. In the survey,
Boomers are more likely to name more "definite responsibilities" of
government, yet they are less likely to believe that they owe the
country certain obligations, including military service, paying taxes,
and paying attention to political issues. The sense of obligation
increases among the Silents and is highest among the GIs.
The differences among Boomers, Silents, and GIs on
social issues is a further illustration of how Boomers will continue to
regard political participation as a means toward personal ends, and less
for larger goals. The fact that boomers are more open to social
arrangements and behaviors that their parents would rarely consider
points to an idea of politics that has less to do with regulating or
prescribing behavior and more to do with allocating resources.
The
self-interest implied in this politics of resource allocation is evident
in Boomers approach to entitlements. Although they are more liberal on
certain moral and social issues than their predecessors and expect a lot
of things from government, this does not necessarily translate into
support for social welfare programs or traditional entitlements. Boomers
are less likely than GIs to favor welfare programs for lower income
people and far more likely to support privatizing Social Security and
Medicare.
What all this means for politics and the political
process we have called "tailored engagement." That is, Boomers can be
expected to be as active as their parents in the political process but
it will be on issues they consider important, and in ways they think are
efffective.
Boomers will be the last to appear at a political rally in
which there is no discussion of issues that clearly affect them. They
will be the last to support a candidate because of party affiliation, or
only because of a general sense that he or she would make a good
legislator. Tailored engagement means that politial participation by
Boomers will be more like the social engagement of their youth
socially active but skeptical about politics; concerned with their
communities or other things that directly affect them; results oriented
with more regard for producing benefits than for achieving higher goals
or fullfilling moral imperatives; and conducted through arrangements
that may neglect the traditional political structures to which their
parents felt an allegiance. |
