June 18, 2002 - The American public gives Republicans in Congress a clear advantage over Democrats on terrorism, military and defense, and the economy, while Democrats lead on domestic problems such as education, Social Security, and prescription drugs for the elderly. All of these issues are viewed as important by most Americans, which may help explain why voters are essentially divided when asked which party's candidate they are likely to support in the forthcoming November Congressional elections, according to a new Gallup Poll.

Republicans Soar on Terrorism and Defense, Democrats on Social Security and Prescription Drugs

The May 28-29 poll asked Americans two questions about 15 issues facing the nation: 1) how important each issue will be in the elections for Congress this November, and 2) whether the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress can better handle each issue.

The graph below arranges each issue according to its relative importance to Americans (the vertical position of the issue on the graph), and the extent to which a particular party is perceived as doing a better job handling it (the horizontal position of the symbol for each issue).

Salience of Issues vs. Political Advantage on Issues

KEY: Issue (Importance, Advantage)

Issues in the upper right hand quadrant of this chart are valuable strengths for Republicans. They are above average in terms of importance and in terms of the public's perception that the Republican Party is best suited to handle it. Americans are significantly more likely to choose Republicans in Congress rather than Democrats as doing the best job on military and defense issues (with a 36 percentage point advantage), terrorism (with a 32 percentage point advantage), and the economy (with a nine percentage point advantage).

Issues in the upper left hand quadrant are valuable strengths for Democrats -- above average in terms of importance and in terms of relative Democratic strength. These include prescription drugs for older Americans (with a 16 percentage point Democratic lead), Social Security (with a 10 percentage point lead), and education (with a six percentage point lead).

There are several other issues tested in the poll that are not as important to Americans. For example, foreign affairs, energy, a patient's bill of rights, the environment, and the problems of ordinary Americans all rate in the middle of the issues tested in the poll. Democrats have an advantage on the environment, the problems of ordinary Americans, and a patient's bill of rights. Republicans have a clear lead on foreign affairs and have a slight two-percentage point lead on energy policy.

Republicans also have an advantage on dealing with moral values, the federal budget deficit, gun policy, and taxes, all of which the public views as relatively less important.

Republicans and Democrats Tied in Congressional Trial Heat

The race for control of the U.S. House is now essentially tied, based on Gallup's generic ballot question, reflecting, at least in part, the fact that currently each party is perceived as having particular strengths on specific, highly important issues.

The current poll shows that 46% of registered voters say they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the elections were held today, while 45% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate. Gallup polling on the mid-term elections has shown a close race since the beginning of the year. In January and February, Republican candidates edged a slight lead over Democratic candidates. The race was even in March, but Democratic candidates managed to gain a slight advantage over Republicans in April.

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district? Among Registered Voters

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 28-29, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

SUMMARY TABLE: ISSUES SALIENCE

Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

SUMMARY TABLE: CONGRESS HANDLING OF ISSUES/PROBLEMS

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?

As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?