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New
Study Says Longer Life Won't Boost Medicare Costs As Much as
Predicted, But We Think They Are Wrong!
By Tucker Sutherland,
editor
Jan. 6, 2002 - On the
eve of the 108th Congress opening, where restructuring of Medicare
will be a hot issue, a study released today says it will not cost as
much to cover the baby boomers as most people have assumed. They may,
however, be making an erroneous assumption.
The study, which
appears in the January issue of the Journal of Gerontology, suggests
that by living longer, many baby boomers will pass the ages at which
the most "heroic," and hence expensive, efforts are made to prolong
their lives. Once members of that generation survive into their
mid-80s and beyond, "many medical procedures will become too risky for
their older bodies and will be avoided in many cases," say the
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Public Health,
researchers.
"Many will not get
sick at ages when costly surgeries and other invasive treatments are
still reasonable possibilities" they say.
It seems to me they
have missed the point - we are living longer because we are stronger
and healthier at older ages. We are still going to need expensive
healthcare, although, it maybe later in our lives than when it was
required for our parents. And, our bodies will be just as strong as
theirs were at a much younger age.
Authors of the report
are public health doctoral student Zhou Yang and Drs. Edward C. Norton
and Sally C. Stearns, both associate professors of health policy and
administration.
"As people age, it's
only natural that health-care costs go up," Norton said. "We found,
for example, that nursing home expenditures are highly correlated with
age, as one would expect, and the probability of going to a nursing
home rises steadily with advancing years. Except near the end of life,
the costs of inpatient care rise only slightly over time, however."
On the other hand, if
one is relatively young during the last two years of life, much
steeper rises in health-related costs occur because doctors and others
try so much harder to save lives, he said.
"In contrast, when we
looked at expenditures for people in their 90s, say, we saw higher
costs – largely due to nursing home care -- but the cost run-up was
not nearly as high for medical treatment," Norton said.
Norton, I'm sure, is
correct in his study of current events. Currently, cost are not as
high for the most elderly. In the future, however, those 90-year olds
will be like today's 80-year olds... and then like 70-year olds. But,
the big kicker is that there will be millions more of these older
citizens in the future.
Additionally, the
rapid advance of medical technology, probably means more treatment
options for older citizens than are available today. Many of these
advances will most likely extend our lives even longer; allowing us to
take advantage of even more healthcare options.
The research involved
detailed analysis of monthly data on 25,954 elderly people from the
federally funded 1992-1998 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey cost
and use files. Information on both people who died and those who
survived illnesses was examined to gauge cost trends over time.
Overall, the average
monthly health-care expenditure per person in 1998 dollars was about
$720, of which Medicare paid $429. Among those who died, the cost was
about $3,170 monthly, while those who survived incurred about $590 in
health expenses.
In the month before
death, the cost for people aged 65 to 74 averaged about $7,580, while
the cost for those 85 and older was $5,254, the analyses showed.
"Our results offers
good news in terms of future expenditures being less burdensome than
previously thought," Stearns said. "At the same time, we need to be
cautious about predicting the future of health-care expenses since
technological changes will occur in drugs, surgery and high-tech
equipment. While those advances are good, they are going to cost money
that we can't estimate yet."
Sorry, guys, I think
you missed the mark. I hope this does not lead the 108th Congress to
underestimate the money that will be needed for Medicare in the
future.
The National Institute
on Aging supported the continuing UNC research.
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