Tsunami of Fat May Soon Wash Away U.S. Health Gains
from Smoking Decline
Researchers find that the U.S. population won't
live longer because even though they've quit smoking, more are
overweight
Dec. 3, 2009 – The health benefits gained in the
U.S. by the decline in smoking is about to be submerged in a tsunami of
fat. If current obesity trends continue the hard won gains in better
health by less smoking will be lost, according to a study by University
of Michigan and Harvard researchers published today in the New England
Journal of Medicine.
“Obesity plays a large role in life expectancy,”
said co-author
Allison B. Rosen, assistant professor in the Department
of Internal Medicine at the University of Michigan. “Despite the
fact that we are smoking less, body-mass indexes (BMI) are going up.
These increases in obesity are overtaking these changes in smoking
behaviors.”
Using a technical analysis that includes
forecasting future trends based on historical data, researchers found
that despite declines in smoking, the remaining life expectancy of a
typical 18-year-old would be held back by 0.71 years by the year 2020
because of the increased body-mass index of the general population.
The
researchers also looked at quality of life. That same 18-year-old could
expect to give up 0.91 years of increased quality-adjusted life
expectancy.
If all U.S. adults became nonsmokers of normal
weight by 2020, their life expectancy would be forecast to increase by
3.76 years or 5.16 quality-adjusted years.
However, the researchers say the study’s results
don’t imply that life expectancy will fall – more likely, life
expectancy will continue to rise due to other factors, but less rapidly
than it otherwise would.
“In the past 15 years, smoking rates have declined
by 20 percent, but obesity rates have increased by 48 percent,” says
lead author Susan T. Stewart, Ph.D, a Harvard University research
associate for the joint project of the National Bureau of Economic
Research and Harvard’s Program for Health System Improvement.
The medical costs of obesity reached an estimated
$147 billion in 2008.
To see county–level estimates of obesity and
diagnosed diabetes, go to
www.cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics. To learn more about CDC′s efforts
in the fight against obesity or for more information about nutrition,
physical activity, and maintaining a healthy weight, go to
www.cdc.gov/obesity/index.html.
“If past
trends continue, nearly half of the population – 45 percent – is
projected to be obese by 2020.”
In addition to better managing clinical risk
factors such as blood sugar among those who are obese, effective public
health efforts are needed to address the roots of obesity, like
sedentary lifestyles, the widespread availability of high-calorie food
in large portions and reduced time for the preparation of food at home,
says David Cutler, Ph.D., another co-author of this study and professor
of Economics at Harvard University, as well as a research associate for
the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Rosen said this study does not indicate that people
are getting heavier because they are not smoking. The weight gain
associated with quitting smoking is temporary and thus not significant
enough to drive the rising trend in increased BMIs.
Public health efforts to discourage smoking have
worked, and a similar effort could help turn around obesity rates, said
Rosen, who also is an assistant professor in the Departments of Health
Management and Policy in the School of Public Health at the University
of Michigan, and Clinical Director of U-M's Center for Value Based
Insurance Design. Many weight control interventions have proven
successful and their use should be encouraged.
Study finds Body Mass Index not the best indicator
of mortality
August 8, 2006
“Losing weight is harder than quitting smoking.
People don’t have to smoke to live. People have to eat to live,” she
said.
“The hypothetical scenario of having everyone a
non-smoker of normal weight may be unachievable. But these results show
the dramatic toll that both smoking and obesity can have on both the
length of life and the quality of life.”
The study was funded by the National Institute on
Aging, the Harvard Interfaculty Program for Health Systems Improvement
and the Lasker Foundation.
Dec. 3, 2009 – The health benefits gained in the
U.S. by the decline in smoking is about to be submerged in a tsunami of
fat. If current obesity trends continue the hard won gains in better
health by less smoking will be lost, according to a study by University
of Michigan and Harvard researchers published today in the New England
Journal of Medicine.