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Senior Citizen Health & Medicine
Cancer Society Predicts Cancer Deaths to Increase in
2007 Despite Long Rate of Decline
Latest stats show big decline in cancer deaths
in 2004 from 2003
January 18, 2007 – Despite a decline of cancer
death rates in the U.S. since 1991 and a large drop in actual deaths from 2003 to 2004 of
3,014, the American Cancer Society yesterday predicted an increase in
2007. In 2004, there were 553,888 deaths from cancer, compared to
556,902 in 2003, but the ACS says their new and improved method of
predicting the future indicates 560,000 Americans will die from cancer
this year – 6,112 more than 2004, which is the latest year of actual data
gathered by the National Center for Health Statistics.
Estimates of the expected numbers of new cancer
cases and cancer deaths should be interpreted cautiously, says ACS.
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Health & Medicine |
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The 2004 decline was significantly larger than the
369 fewer deaths reported for the previous time period (2002 to 2003),
which itself marked the first decline in actual number of cancer deaths
in the more than 70 years since nationwide data began to be compiled,
according to ACS.
While the death rate for all cancers combined has
decreased in the United States since 1991, not until 2003 was the
decrease large enough to outpace the aging and growth of the U.S.
population, resulting in two consecutive years of dropping cancer
deaths.
"The larger drop in cancer deaths in 2004 is
evidence that the decline may continue," stated the news release from
ACS.
Still, the report points out that although progress
continues to be made in reducing mortality rates, cancer remains the top
cause of death in Americans under age 85.
These figures, as well as estimates for the current
year, come from Cancer Statistics 2007, published in the
January/February issue of CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, as well
as in the 56th edition of its companion publication, Cancer Facts &
Figures 2007. Based on the latest data, American Cancer Society
epidemiologists predict that approximately 1.44 million Americans will
be diagnosed with cancer and 560,000 will die from the disease in 2007.
Drops in cancer deaths from 2003 to 2004 were seen
across all four major cancer sites in men and women (lung, breast,
prostate, and colorectal) in 2004, except for lung cancer among women.
Colorectal cancer showed the largest decrease in
the number of deaths.
“This second consecutive drop in the number of
actual cancer deaths, much steeper than the first, shows last year’s
historic drop was no fluke,” said John R. Seffrin, Ph.D., American
Cancer Society chief executive officer.
“Everyone involved in the fight against cancer
should be proud of this remarkable achievement. The hard work towards
preventing cancer, catching it early, and making treatment more
effective is paying dramatic, lifesaving dividends.
"Thirteen years of continuing drops in the overall
cancer death rate have now overtaken trends in aging and growth of the
U.S. population, resulting in decreased numbers of deaths.”
The American Cancer Society projects there will be
559,650 deaths from cancer in 2007; 289,550 among men and 270,100 among
women. The Society also predicts there will be 1,444,920 new cases of
cancer in 2007; 766,860 among men and 678,060 among women.
Beginning with this year’s estimated new cancer
cases, the American Cancer Society introduced what it says is "a new,
more accurate projection method."
The method was developed by researchers at the
National Cancer Institute. It uses cancer incidence data from cancer
registries covering about 86 percent of the U.S. population, compared to
the previous method, which used data from registries covering about 10
percent of the population.
While the new method predicted a similar number of
total cancer cases for 2007 (new: 1,444,920; old: 1,419,000; a 1.8
percent difference), there were several cancer sites for which the
predictions by the new method differed substantially from predictions
made by the old method.
The predicted number of breast cancers among women
was 15.2 percent lower using the new method compared to the old method.
Society epidemiologists believe the new estimate is more accurate
because it reflects the lower incidence rates of breast cancer in the
U.S. population as a whole compared to the populations covered in
previous databases, as well as the recently reported drop in breast
cancer incidence.
The new method also resulted in increases in
estimated lung cancer and leukemia cases (15.3 percent and 23.4 percent,
respectively) and a drop in estimated prostate cancer cases (5.5
percent). In all cases, the newer numbers are believed to be more
accurate, according to Ahmedin Jemal, PhD, lead author of Cancer
Statistics and Cancer Facts and Figures.
Dr. Jemal notes that the new method marks a
milestone in cancer surveillance because it accounts for cancer
incidence in more than 86 percent of the U.S. population as well as
other factors that influence cancer risk.
The cancer incidence and survey data were collected
by the Centers for Disease Control, the National Cancer Institute, the
North American Association of Central Cancer Registries, the U.S. Census
Bureau, state and local health agencies, and thousands of cancer
registrars throughout the country.
Since 1952, when the first edition of Cancer Facts
& Figures consisted of four typewritten pages, the American Cancer
Society’s annual estimates of cancer incidence and deaths has become "a
critical tool" for scientists and public health experts, policymakers,
and others watching cancer trends.
The annual estimates of new cancer cases and deaths
are some of the most widely quoted cancer statistics in the world. The
Society’s leading team of epidemiologic researchers compiles and
analyzes incidence and mortality data from around the country to
estimate the number of new cancer cases and deaths for the current year
nationwide and in individual states.
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No Rosy Scenario For
Lung Cancer |
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Lung Cancer Alliance Reacts to New
Statistics on Disease Incidence and Mortality Rates
Jan. 18, 2007 - Today, Lung Cancer
Alliance (LCA) expressed disappointment with the American Cancer
Society's (ACS) portrayal of lung cancer in its recently
released publication, CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, and
its companion piece, Cancer Facts & Figures. While ACS points
out that "cancer deaths are down for a second year," this is not
true for lung cancer, which accounts for 30% of all cancer
deaths.
"Again, the American Cancer Society would
have the lung cancer community believe that significant progress
has been made to reduce lung cancer's impact on mortality, when
in fact little, if any, has occurred," said Laurie Fenton,
President of Lung Cancer Alliance.
According to the estimates just released,
there will be 213,000 new lung cancer cases in 2007 -- this is
an increase of 22% compared to 2006, and represents almost
40,000 more people who will be diagnosed. The five-year survival
rates are projected to drop from 15.3% in 2006 to 15% in 2007.
And, as stated in CA, there has been virtually no change in lung
cancer death or incidence rates for more than a decade.
"We are going to have a record-setting
number of new cases of lung cancer in 2007," continued Fenton.
"We're also seeing a drop in the five-year survival rate with
little discussion about the need to increase research funding to
find better treatment options and support screening for those at
high risk for lung cancer. How much lower do survival rates have
to go before ACS and the National Cancer Institute start
addressing lung cancer with a sense of priority and urgency?"
The mission of Lung Cancer Alliance is to
lead the movement to reverse decades of stigma and neglect by
empowering those with or at risk for the disease, elevating
awareness and changing health policy.
The Lung Cancer Alliance (http://www.lungcanceralliance.org/)
is the only national non-profit organization solely dedicated to
patient support and advocacy for people living with, or at risk
for, lung cancer. As the number one cancer killer, lung cancer
will kill more than 160,000 Americans this year alone, causing
more deaths than breast, prostate, colon, liver, kidney cancers
and melanoma combined.
Source: Lung Cancer Alliance |
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Highlights from this year’s publications:
● In 2007, 1,444,920 new cancer cases and 559,650
deaths, or about 1,500 deaths per day, from cancer are expected in the
United States.
● Among men, cancers of the prostate, lung and
bronchus, and colon and rectum account for more than half (54 percent)
of all newly diagnosed cancers. Prostate cancer alone accounts for
nearly a third (29 percent) of cases in men.
● The three most commonly diagnosed types of
cancer among women in 2007 will be cancers of the breast, lung and
bronchus, and colon and rectum, accounting for more than half (52
percent) of estimated cancer cases in women. Breast cancer alone is
expected to account for one in four (26 percent) new cancer cases among
women.
● Lung cancer surpassed breast cancer as the
leading cause of cancer death in women in 1987. Lung cancer is expected
to account for 26 percent of all female cancer deaths in 2007.
● Cancer incidence rates stabilized in men from
1995 to 2003 and increased in women by 0.3 percent per year from 1987 to
2003. Death rates for all cancer sites combined decreased by 1.6 percent
per year from 1993 to 2003 in males and by 0.8 percent per year in
females from 1992 to 2003.
● Mortality rates have continued to decrease
across all four major cancer sites in men and in women except for female
lung cancer, in which rates continued to increase by 0.3 percent per
year from 1995 to 2003.
● Death rates from all cancers combined peaked in
1990 for men and in 1991 for women. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death
rates from cancer decreased by 16.3 percent among men and by 8.5 percent
among women
● Lung cancer incidence rates are declining in
men and appear to be plateauing in women after increasing for many
decades.
● Colorectal cancer incidence rates decreased
from 1998 through 2003 in both males and in females.
● Female breast cancer incidence rates leveled
off from 2001 to 2003 after increasing since 1980, which may reflect the
saturation of mammography utilization and dramatic reduction in hormone
replacement therapy use that followed publication of the Women’s Health
Initiative in 2002.
● Among males under age 40 years, leukemia is the
most common fatal cancer, while cancer of the lung and bronchus
predominates in men aged 40 years and older.
● Among females, leukemia is the leading cause of
cancer death before age 20 years, breast cancer ranks first at age 20 to
59 years, and lung cancer ranks first at age 60 years and older.
● From 2003 to 2004, the number of recorded
cancer deaths decreased by 1,160 in men and by 1,854 in women. The
largest change in number of deaths from the major cancers was for
colorectal cancer in both men and women (decreased by 1,110 and 1,094,
respectively).
● African American men have a 15 percent higher
incidence rate and 38 percent higher death rate than white men. African
American women have a nine percent lower incidence rate, but an 18
percent higher death rate than white women for all cancer sites
combined.
● Among other racial and ethnic groups, cancer
incidence and death rates are lower than those in whites and African
Americans for all cancer sites combined and for the four most common
cancer sites.
● Cancer is the second leading cause of death
among children between ages one to 14 years in the U.S., after
accidents. The five-year relative survival rate among children for all
cancer sites combined improved from 58 percent for patients diagnosed in
1975 to 1977 to 79 percent for those diagnosed in 1996 to 2002.
 “The drops in cancer deaths we’re seeing are a
cause for celebration; the hard work of millions is paying off. But they
come at a time of great concern about future progress,” said Richard C.
Wender, M.D., national volunteer president of the American Cancer
Society.
“The adoption of tobacco control policies across
the country has contributed to our remarkable progress against cancer,
but these gains are threatened by cutbacks in funding for research and
prevention programs.
"A few years after our nation doubled its
investment in medical research, Congress cut cancer funding for the
first time in more than a decade. I hope today’s news demonstrates that
the resources spent on this fight have been worthwhile and inspires our
lawmakers to recommit themselves to it.”
Editor's Notes:
Estimates of the expected numbers of new cancer
cases and cancer deaths should be interpreted cautiously, says the ACS.
These estimates may vary considerably from year
to year, particularly for less common cancers and in states with smaller
populations. Despite these limitations, the American Cancer Society’s
estimates of the number of new cancer cases and deaths in the current
year provide reasonably accurate estimates of the burden of new cancer
cases and deaths in the United States. Such estimates will assist in
continuing efforts to reduce the public health burden of cancer,
according to the society.
Each year, Cancer Facts & Figures features a
Special Section highlighting a particular aspect of cancer prevention,
early detection or treatment. Tobacco, obesity, infectious causes of
cancer, and environmental pollutants have been discussed in recent
years.
In 2007, the special section looks at
cancer-related pain. Pain is one of the most common symptoms associated
with cancer. Approximately one in three patients newly diagnosed with
cancer; 30 to 50 percent of patients undergoing treatment; and 70 to 90
percent of patients with advanced cancer experience pain.
Regardless of the stage of disease or recovery,
pain associated with cancer can almost always be relieved by proper
treatment. Although control of pain can improve a person’s quality of
life, cancer pain often goes untreated, under treated, or improperly
treated. The special section describes the types of cancer-related pain
and methods of pain assessment and treatment. It also addresses the
issue of under treatment of cancer pain as well as educational and
legislative initiatives to ensure that all cancer patients receive
adequate pain control. The full report can be viewed at
www.cancer.org/statistics.
The American Cancer Society is dedicated to
eliminating cancer as a major health problem by saving lives,
diminishing suffering and preventing cancer through research, education,
advocacy and service. Founded in 1913 and with national headquarters in
Atlanta, the Society has 13 regional Divisions and local offices in
3,400 communities, involving millions of volunteers across the United
States. For more information anytime, call toll free 1-800-ACS-2345 or
visit www.cancer.org.
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