Senior Citizens Have Little Interest in Oscar Winner but Favor 'Good Night'

March 2, 2006 – While much of the world argues which movie should win the Oscar, senior citizens seem to have little interest. In a new poll 22 percent of those over age 60 said none of the nominees should win, and 36 percent said they just were not sure, which probably indicates a lack of interest. Seniors do join the younger audience in picking Reese Witherspoon for best actress.

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While "Brokeback Mountain" may be receiving a lot of critical acclaim and attention from the media, one in five (20%) U.S. adults say "Crash" should win the Best Picture Oscar this year. Senior are in a major disagreement on this one, with only 3 percent picking "Crash."

Seniors, however, were dead in the middle on "Brokeback Mountain," with 13 percent picking it to win, the same as the national average. Older Americans, however, liked "Good Night and Good Luck" best and made it their favorite pick with 15 percent.

Behind "Brokeback Mountain" all adults voted 10 percent for "Good Night and Good Luck" and "Munich."

The fifth nominee "Capote" has the support of four percent of adults as well as seniors.

What may be worrisome for the producers of the Academy Awards is that one-quarter (24%) of adults say they are not sure who should win, and 18 percent think none of these five should win. Not as disinterested as seniors but raises the question - Without being invested in a movie, will they tune in to watch the awards?

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between February 7 and 14, 2006.

In the race for Best Actor (32%), one-third of adults say Joaquin Phoenix should win for his portrayal of Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line," while 15 percent believe the Oscar should go to Heath Ledger for his performance in "Brokeback Mountain." Senior opinions on best actor were not released.

The other three nominees do not garner as much support as eight percent say the award should go to Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Capote," seven percent choose Terrence Howard for "Hustle and Flow," and four percent say David Strathairn should win for "Good Night and Good Luck." Again, almost one-quarter (23%) say they are not sure who the Best Actor nod should go to this year.

The Best Actress race is much clearer, at least in the minds of the American public and senior citizens in particular. More than two in five (43%) adults say Reese Witherspoon should win the Oscar for "Walk the Line."

Seniors gave Witherspoon strong support – 33 percent say she should win and their next choice, with only 10 percent, was Judi Dench for "Mrs. Henderson Presents."

Among all adults, Witherspoon's fellow nominees receive single-digit support: Keira Knightley for Pride and Prejudice" (7%), Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (7%), Charlize Theron for "North Country" (6%) and Judi Dench for "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (6%). One in five (20%) are not sure who should win for Best Actress.

Each year there is debate over the choice of host, so Jon Stewart may have his work cut out for him on Oscar night. Though he may have come in second this year on The Harris Poll’s top-10 list of favorite television personalities, when asked about his selection as host, only nine percent of adults say Jon Stewart will make them more likely to watch, seven percent say it makes them less likely to watch and 84 percent say it makes no difference.

Indifference, again, was even more notable among seniors, with 86 percent says it make no difference who hosts the show.

Other results from The Harris Poll® are:

● While both men and women say the Best Picture Oscar should go to "Crash" (19% and 21%, respectively), women are more likely than men (18% vs. 8%) to say "Brokeback Mountain" should win the Oscar.

● Perhaps due to the eclectic nature of the movies nominated, there is a large generational divide over who should win. "Crash" is a clear favorite of the younger generation, as 40 percent of Echo Boomers (those 18 to 27 years of age) say it should win Best Picture. Baby Boomers (those 40 to 58 years of age)are split, as 15 percent each say "Crash" and "Brokeback Mountain" should win the Oscar, while 15 percent of Matures (those 59 years of age and older) say the Oscar should go to "Good Night and Good Luck."

● Both African Americans and Hispanics are more likely to say "Crash" should win Best Picture (42% and 28%, respectively), as compared to 17 percent of Whites who say this. African Americans (40%) are also much more likely than Whites (2%) or Hispanics (4%) to say that Terrence Howard should win for Best Actor. Hispanics (25%) are more likely to name Heath Ledger as Best Actor than Whites or African Americans (14% and 15%, respectively).

● The partisan divide in this country is not only seen in Washington, but also in the Oscar race. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say that both "Crash" (28% vs. 18%) and "Brokeback Mountain" (18% vs. 8%) should win. Republicans are more likely to say none of the nominees should win (22% vs. 11%). This same partisan divide is evident in the Best Actor race, as 42 percent of Republicans want to see Joaquin Phoenix thank the Academy, compared to 25 percent of Democrats. Democrats, however, are more likely than Republicans to say Heath Ledger (21% vs. 10%) and Terrence Howard (12% vs. 1%) should win.

BEST PICTURE OSCAR

"Which movie should win the Oscar for Best Picture?"

Base: All adults

		Generation
	Total	Echo Boomer (age 18-29)	Gen X (age 30-41)	Baby Boomer (age 42-60)	Mature (age 61+)
	%	%	%	%	%
Crash	20	40	27	15	3
Brokeback Mountain	13	8	17	15	13
Good Night and Good Luck	10	8	6	11	15
Munich	10	13	7	11	7
Capote	4	3	5	5	4
None of these	18	12	20	17	22
Not sure	24	16	18	26	36
Decline to answer	1	*	1	2	*

		Gender		Race
	Total	Male	Female	White	African American**	Hispanic**
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Crash	20	19	21	17	42	28
Brokeback Mountain	13	8	18	14	7	12
Good Night and Good Luck	10	8	12	10	7	16
Munich	10	11	8	10	2	13
Capote	4	4	4	5	3	2
None of these	18	24	12	17	20	14
Not sure	24	24	24	26	19	14
Decline to answer	1	1	1	1	-	-

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

* Less than 0.5%.

** Small base (n<100). Data should be used directionally.

BEST ACTOR OSCAR

"Who should win the Oscar for Best Actor?"

Base: All adults

		Race			Party ID
	Total	White	African American*	Hispanic*	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Joaquin Phoenix for "Walk the Line"	32	35	9	30	42	25	28
Heath Ledger for "Brokeback Mountain	15	14	15	25	10	21	14
Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Capote"	8	8	5	6	5	10	9
Terrence Howard for "Hustle and Flow"	7	2	40	4	1	12	8
David Strathairn for "Good Night and Good Luck"	4	5	5	7	5	5	4
None of these	10	9	12	10	11	7	11
Not sure	23	25	10	19	24	18	25
Decline to answer	2	1	4	-	2	1	2

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

* Small base (n<100). Data should be used directionally.

BEST ACTRESS OSCAR

"Who should win the Oscar for Best Actress?"

Base: All Adults

		Generation
	Total	Echo Boomer (age 18–29)	Gen X (age 30–41)	Baby Boomer (age 42–60)	Mature (age 61+)
	%	%	%	%	%
Reese Witherspoon for "Walk the Line"	43	53	48	40	33
Keira Knightley for "Pride and Prejudice"	7	10	5	9	3
Felicity Huffman for "Transamerica"	7	5	11	6	5
Charlize Theron for "North Country"	6	13	6	4	4
Judi Dench for "Mrs. Henderson Presents"	6	6	4	6	10
None of these	10	3	10	9	15
Not sure	20	9	15	23	29
Decline to answer	1	*	1	1	1

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

* Less than 0.5%.

JON STEWART AS HOST

"This year Jon Stewart has been chosen to host the Oscars. Does this selection for a host make you more likely to watch the Oscars this year, less likely to watch the Oscars or will it make no difference to you?"

Base: All Adults

		Generation
	Total	Echo Boomer (age 18–29)	Gen X (age 30–41)	Baby Boomer (age 42–60)	Mature (age 61+)
	%	%	%	%	%
More likely	9	10	10	8	7
Less likely	7	7	7	6	6
No difference	84	83	82	86	86
Not sure	*	*	-	*	1
Decline to answer	*	-	-	-	-

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

* Less than 0.5%.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 7 and 14, 2006 among a nationwide cross section of 1,016 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results of the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Sampling error for the sub-sample results is higher and varies. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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