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Alzheimer's, Dementia & Mental Health
Delay of Alzheimer’s by One Year Would Reduce Cases
in 2050 by 12 Million
26.6 million had AD in 2006; predicted to pass 100
million by 2050
 June 11, 2007 – If Alzheimer’s disease could be
delayed by just one year in those who develop this mind-destroying
ailment, it would reduce the number of Alzheimer's cases in 2050 by 12
million. The latest worldwide estimate of Alzheimer’s disease shows that
26.6 million people were living with the disease in 2006, according to
research reported Sunday at the 2nd Alzheimer’s Association
International Conference on Prevention of Dementia in Washington, D.C.
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Alzheimer's, Dementia & Mental Health |
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The researchers predict that global prevalence of
Alzheimer’s will quadruple by 2050 to more than 100 million, at which
time 1 in 85 persons worldwide will be living with the disease.
More than 40 percent of those cases will be in late
stage Alzheimer’s requiring a high level of attention equivalent to
nursing home care.
“The number of people affected by Alzheimer’s
disease is growing at an alarming rate, and the increasing financial and
personal costs will have a devastating effect on the world’s economies,
healthcare systems and families,” said William Thies, Ph.D., vice
president of Medical and Scientific Relations with the Alzheimer's
Association.
In March, the Alzheimer’s Association reported that
there are now more than 5 million people in the United States living
with Alzheimer’s. This is a 10 percent increase from the previous
nationwide prevalence estimate of 4.5 million. The new estimate was
included in a report titled, 2007 Alzheimer’s Disease Facts and Figures.
Thies added, “We must make the fight against
Alzheimer’s a national priority before it’s too late. The absence of
effective disease modifying drugs, coupled with an aging population,
makes Alzheimer’s the healthcare crisis of the 21st century.”
“However there is hope. There are several drugs in
Phase III clinical trials for Alzheimer’s that show great promise to
slow or stop the progression of the disease. This, combined with
advancements in diagnostic tools, has the potential to change the
landscape of Alzheimer’s, but we need more funding for research to make
this happen,” Thies said.
About the study
Researchers led by Ron Brookmeyer, Ph.D., Professor
of Biostatistics and Chair of the Master of Public Health Program at The
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, M.D.,
created a multi-state mathematical computer model using United Nations’
worldwide population forecasts and data from epidemiological studies on
the incidence and mortality of Alzheimer’s.
The goal was to forecast the global burden of
Alzheimer’s disease and evaluate the potential impact of interventions
that delay disease onset or progression.
The researchers also used their model to
investigate the impact of medical advances and preventive strategies on
disease onset and disease progression. They found that:
• Delaying Alzheimer’s disease onset by one year we would reduce the
number of Alzheimer's cases in 2050 by 12 million.
• Delaying both Alzheimer’s disease onset and disease progression by
two years would reduce burden by more than 18 million cases, with most
of that decrease – 16 million cases – among late stage cases that
require the most intensive care.
“A global epidemic of Alzheimer’s disease is
coming,” Brookmeyer said. “However, even modest advances in preventing
Alzheimer’s or delaying its progression can have a huge global public
health impact.”
Doubling time of Alzheimer’s disease incidence
In a related study, Kathryn Ziegler-Graham, Ph.D.,
a National Science Foundation post-doctoral fellow and visiting
assistant professor in Statistics at St. Olaf College in Northfield,
Minn., and colleagues examined Alzheimer’s disease doubling time, which
is the number of years it takes for the age-specific incidence rate to
double.
In order to estimate doubling times and identify
regional or gender relationships, the researchers reviewed all studies
in the peer review literature that reported age specific incidence rates
for Alzheimer’s disease. They found an overall estimate of the doubling
time was 5.5 years. The doubling times from studies performed in North
America, Europe, and other parts of the world were not significantly
different. No significant differences were detected by gender.
“Doubling times of Alzheimer’s disease incidence
rates are remarkably similar among populations throughout the world,”
Ziegler-Graham said.
“The astronomical costs of Alzheimer’s disease and
other forms of dementia have a tremendous impact on individuals living
with the disease, their loved ones and society as a whole,” said Harry
Johns, president and CEO of the Alzheimer’s Association. “We must
increase funding for research on treatment, prevention and early
detection. And until we defeat this disease, we must provide better care
for people with dementia and their families. The advancements we make in
treatment and prevention now will save millions of dollars and lives in
the near future.”
Editor's Notes:
About the Alzheimer’s Association Prevention
Conference
The Alzheimer’s Association International
Conference on Prevention of Dementia is the world's only
multidisciplinary forum to convene professionals from the fields of
bench research, drug discovery, medicine, care and public policy. More
than 1,000 dementia experts from around the world will gather to present
and discuss the latest detection, treatment and prevention research, and
address how together we can prevent Alzheimer's from becoming a global
health crisis. The 2007 Alzheimer’s Association Prevention Conference
will be held June 9-12 at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington,
D.C.
About the Alzheimer’s Association
The Alzheimer’s Association is the leading
voluntary health organization in Alzheimer’s care, support and research.
Our mission is to eliminate Alzheimer’s disease through the advancement
of research, provide and enhance care and support for all affected, and
reduce the risk of dementia through the promotion of brain health. Our
vision is a world without Alzheimer’s. For more information, visit
www.alz.org.
References:
• Ron Brookmeyer – Forecasting the global prevalence and burden of
Alzheimer’s disease. (Funders: Elan Pharmaceuticals, Wyeth
Pharmaceuticals)
• Kathryn Ziegler-Graham – Worldwide variation in the doubling time of
Alzheimer’s disease incidence rates. (Funders: Elan Pharmaceuticals,
Wyeth Pharmaceuticals)
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