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Longer Life Will Add Host of Social, Economic
Challenges
Between 2010 and 2030 age of death may increase
by 20 years with anti-aging therapies
Feb. 20, 2006 - In the 21st century,
state-of-the-art anti-aging technologies may extend human lifespans at
an unprecedented rate, bringing with them a host of social and economic
challenges, says biologist Shripad Tuljapurkar of Stanford University.
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The combined impact of these medical advances would
have major implications for the global community in the new century.
Tuljapurkar, the Dean and Virginia Morrison Professor of Population
Studies, spoke Friday on the demographic and economic consequences of
anti-aging therapies at the annual meeting of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science in St. Louis.
"Some people believe we are on the brink of being
able to extend human lifespan significantly, because we've got most of
the technologies we need to do it," Tuljapurkar said.
There is hope in the scientific community that
extending life also will prolong the healthy and active years of life,
he said, adding, "That's where I come in."
Aging populations around the world
In his research, Tuljapurkar selected
representative populations from different countries around the world and
examined relationships between historical trends in aging, population
growth and economic activity. His analysis combined these data with
forecasts on the future of anti-aging treatments from leading
researchers in the field.
The result?
"We've come up with a scenario: Starting around
2010, we could see lifespan increase dramatically," he predicted.
Tuljapurkar estimated that between 2010 and 2030,
the modal, or most common, age of death will increase by 20 years if
anti-aging therapies come into widespread use.
This projected increase reflects a lifespan growth
rate that is five times faster than the current rate, increasing the
modal age of death in industrialized countries such as the United States
from roughly 80 years to 100.
"We studied different countries around the world
that are representative of different situations and took a look at where
they'd end up," Tuljapurkar said. "One thing that happens right away,
which nobody seems to have thought of, is that the total global
population increases dramatically.
From an original projection of 8 billion we end up
topping out at 10 to 11 billion. In many countries, this would have an
enormous, and not necessarily positive, impact. For example, the idea
that China would go from 1.5 to 1.8 billion, just because of this, is a
bit frightening."
On the other hand, he said, a longer-lived
population could be good news for many European countries with low
fertility rates. "Countries like Sweden and Italy have been having this
huge debate for many years over population decline," Tuljapurkar
explained. "A lot of the debate is about immigration: People have been
telling them they need to increase immigration in order to keep the
economy going."
However, an increase in citizenry is only one
factor in determining a nation's socioeconomic health, he noted. Even
countries with stable populations will see the age composition of the
citizenry undergo a dramatic shift toward the elderly, who are
frequently retired or disabled.
To factor in this phenomenon, Tuljapurkar examined
the effects of anti-aging technologies on the national dependency
ratio--the proportion of retired people (age 65 and over) to working
people (age 20-65) in a population. This ratio is a crucial factor in
determining Medicare and Social Security policies in the United States,
he said.
Current worries over the fate of Social Security
center on the impending retirement of the Baby Boom generation. By 2035,
the U.S. dependency ratio is projected to double from approximately 1:5
to just above 2:5. Increased boomer lifespans will add an alarming extra
weight to an already sagging system. Factoring in increased lifespans,
Tuljapurkar calculated that current forecasts for dependency ratios
could fall short by a factor of two--meaning that in America, the ratio
will actually quadruple to 4:5.
"It's staggering to think about the fiscal effects
of this," he said.
Inequality
The situation is equally troubling on a global
scale. While science may be on the brink of unlocking the mysteries of
the aging process, Tuljapurkar worried that the world is unprepared for
the inequalities that this new knowledge may generate between the
world's rich and poor.
"Are some people going to be left behind? Are we
going to make society far more unequal than it is now?" he asked.
Tuljapurkar predicted that the lifespan boom will be confined to wealthy
countries, where citizens can afford anti-aging technology and
governments can afford to sponsor scientific research. This disparity
complicates the current debate over access to healthcare, as the rich
become increasingly distanced from the poor, not only in quality but
length of life.
Tuljapurkar warned that the distribution of
anti-aging technologies is likely to be in the hands of companies that
have a history of focusing solely on profit rather than the imperative
to distribute medicines to those who need them most.
"Big pharmaceutical companies have a
well-established track record of being very difficult when it comes to
making things available to those who can't pay for them," he said.
If anti-aging technologies are distributed in the
unchecked free market, "it's entirely likely to me that we'll wind up
with permanent global underclasses, countries that will get locked into
today's mortality conditions," Tuljapurkar said.
As the gap widens and rich countries continue to
invest in anti-aging technologies, the developed world may become
increasingly less willing to disseminate the technology to other
nations, he said: "If that happens, you get negative feedback, a vicious
circle. Those countries that get locked out stay locked out."
Medical technologies around the globe
An example of this inequality, Tuljapurkar said, is
the lack of availability of AIDS antiretrovirals in Africa. Although
these medications are widely available in the West, they are out of
reach for many African patients, who make up more than 60 percent the
world's AIDS cases. "If we can't deal with AIDS in Africa, the chance
that we'll be able to deliver these anti-aging technologies to other
nations is pretty slim," he said.
In the final analysis, Tuljapurkar stressed the
need for scientists and policymakers alike to confront the full
environmental and sociological implications of anti-aging technologies,
with an awareness of the potential costs and challenges in addition to
the benefits.
"What we've tended to do historically with medical
advances is to take the reasonable position that we should implement
everything that comes along," Tuljapurkar said. "However, we are now
approaching a stage where it's necessary to look the implications before
we rush in--at least so we can prepare ourselves. We need to confront
the prospect of inequality head-on, instead of waiting 10 years and then
saying, 'What a surprise!'"
About source:
Original story by Melissa Fusco, a science-writing
intern at the Stanford News Service.
Links:
Tuljapurkar Lab
http://popstudies.stanford.edu/
CDEHA at Stanford
http://healthpolicy.stanford.edu/CDEHA/
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