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Aging News & Information
Elderly Drivers Increasingly More Likely to Die in
Auto Accidents
Study looks at age, gender as major factors in
severity of accident injuries
January 5, 2007 - National statistics show that
fatalities rose by 7 percent for drivers 75 and older from 1981 to 2000,
remained steady for drivers from 65-74, but dropped for younger drivers.
This does not mean older drivers are necessarily worse behind the wheel,
but that they are just more likely to suffer injury and death.
Understanding the differences among drivers in different gender and age
categories is crucial to preventing serious injuries, said researchers
in a new study showing stark statistical differences in traffic-accident
injuries depending on the gender and age of drivers.
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The new findings are especially important because
the number of drivers 65 and older is expected to double by 2030 in the
United States to 70 million, said Fred Mannering, a professor of civil
engineering at Purdue University and the study's co-author.
"It is reasonably well known that age and gender
have an effect on the likelihood of an accident, but the influence that
age and gender have on driver injuries once an accident has occurred is
not well understood," Mannering said.
The Purdue researchers found statistically
significant differences in the severity of injuries suffered in
accidents involving men and women drivers and drivers within three age
groups: young drivers, 16-24; middle-aged drivers, 25-64; and older
drivers, 65 and above.
"Because the factors that affect how severely you
are going to be injured vary depending on your age and gender, a better
understanding of age and gender differences can lead to improvements in
vehicle and highway design to minimize driver injury severity,"
Mannering said.
"What is clear is that safety research and policy
must begin to seriously address gender- and age-related matters because
there are compelling differences and considerable potential to improve
safety if these differences are properly addressed."
Findings were detailed in a paper published last
year in the Journal of Safety Research. The paper was written by Purdue
doctoral student Samantha Islam and Mannering.
The researchers used mathematical models to
calculate various probabilities using data from one-vehicle accidents in
Indiana.
The study included findings showing that:
● Accidents involving an overturned vehicle
increased the likelihood of a fatality by 220 percent for older men and
only 154 percent for young men. For women, rollover accidents increased
the likelihood of fatality by 523 percent for older women and only 116
percent for young women.
● Vehicles carrying one or more passengers at
the time of the accident increased the likelihood of driver fatality by
114 percent for young men and 70 percent for middle-aged men, but had no
significant effect on the injury levels of older male drivers.
● Vehicles less than five years old increased
the likelihood of fatality for older men by 216 percent and for young
men by 71 percent, but did not have a significant effect on the
likelihood of a fatality for middle-aged men.
● Not using safety belts increased the
likelihood of injury by 119 percent for young women, 164 percent for
middle-aged women and 187 percent for older women.
● Accidents occurring in rural areas increased
the likelihood of fatalities by 208 percent for young women but had no
significant effect on the injury levels of other female age categories.
● Vehicles six years old and older increased the
likelihood of injury for middle-aged female drivers by more than 200
percent but had no significant impact on the injury levels of other
female age categories.
● Fatalities were more likely for middle-aged
men who fall asleep at the wheel, exceeded the speed limit, got into an
accident at an intersection or had an accident after midnight on Friday
or Saturday, while the same factors had no significant effect on the
injury levels of middle-aged female drivers.
● Injuries were shown to be more likely for
middle-aged women who drive during daytime hours, drive while under the
influence of alcohol or drive while ill, while the same factors did not
significantly influence the injury levels of middle-aged male drivers.
● Driving on curvy roads and driving vehicles
six years old and older increased the likelihood of injury for
middle-aged female drivers but were found to have no significant effect
on the injury levels of middle-aged male drivers.
"We can only speculate as to why these differences
exist," Mannering said.
"Possibilities include differences in reaction time
and physical differences relating to height, weight and body structure
and vehicle design attributes that affect drivers differently. Another
possibility is that vehicle safety systems, such as safety belts and
airbags, may be more effective for some age and gender categories than
for others."
While alcohol played a role in some categories,
such as middle-aged female fatalities, its impact was not statistically
significant for most age and gender categories, Mannering said.
"In many cases, alcohol consumption may have an
indirect effect by increasing the probability of not wearing a safety
belt, speeding and the likelihood of certain types of collisions, but
once you know these factors, the direct effect of alcohol on injury
severity may not be statistically significant," he said.
"For the most part, if you are drunk and hit a
utility pole at 70 mph, you will have the same injury probabilities as
if you are sober and hit a utility pole at 70 mph.
On the other hand, whether you would have been
going 70 mph and hit the utility pole if you were sober is another
question - one that we do not address in this paper because our
statistical models are conditioned on the accident having occurred."
Future areas of research should be pursued,
Mannering said, including an expansion of analyses to consider accidents
involving more than one vehicle and accidents in other geographical
areas; analyses of the effect of various vehicle safety systems on
drivers of different height, weight and body structures; and
comprehensive analyses of male and female age-related responses in
accident situations.
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